Related papers: A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. IV. Eva…

We developed a solar flare prediction model using a deep neural network (DNN), named Deep Flare Net (DeFN). The model can calculate the probability of flares occurring in the following 24 h in each active region, which is used to determine…

Modeling of transient events in the solar atmosphere requires the confluence of 3 critical elements: (1) model sophistication, (2) data availability, and (3) data assimilation. This white paper describes required advances that will enable…

Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed…

Solar flares are the most explosive phenomena in the solar system and the main trigger of the events' chain that starts from Coronal Mass Ejections and leads to geomagnetic storms with possible impacts on the infrastructures at Earth.…

Efficient prediction of solar flares relies on parameters that quantify the eruptive capability of solar active regions. Several such quantitative predictors have been proposed in the literature, inferred mostly from photospheric…

Indications are presented for a significant connection between the relative motion of the planets and the appearance of energetic solar flares. Based on the records of the last four decades, the analysis highlights remarkable features and a…

Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…

Prediction of solar flares is an important task in solar physics. The occurrence of solar flares is highly dependent on the structure and the topology of solar magnetic fields. A new method for predicting large (M and X class) flares is…

The waiting time statistics of solar flares provides clues for the underlying physical mechanisms. However, flares occurring on the far-side have been missing in the statistics. In the 2024 May and June, the Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft…

Flow matching has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling and has been extended to probabilistic time series forecasting in latent spaces. However, the impact of the specific choice of probability path model on…

We present two main results, based on the models and the statistical analyses of 1672 U-band flares. We also discuss the behaviours of the white-light flares. In addition, the parameters of the flares detected from two years of observations…

We present a comparative study of transformer-based architectures for solar flare forecasting using heterogeneous data modalities, including images, video sequences, and time-series observations. Our analysis evaluates three recent…

Solar flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation, which occur due to a rapid destabilization and reconnection of the magnetic field. While pre-flare signatures and trends have been investigated from magnetic observations prior…

Solar flares are among the most severe space weather phenomena, and they have the capacity to generate radiation storms and radio disruptions on Earth. The accurate prediction of solar flare events remains a significant challenge, requiring…

This work explores the impacts of magnetogram projection effects on machine learning-based solar flare forecasting models. Utilizing a methodology proposed by Falconer et al. (2016), we correct for projection effects present in Georgia…

We present the discovery of a relationship between the maximum ratio of the flare flux (namely, 0.5-4 Ang to the 1-8 Ang flux) and non-flare background (namely, the 1-8 Ang background flux), which clearly separates flares into classes by…

Post-flare arcades are well-known components of solar flare evolution, which have been observed for several decades. Coronal rain, cascades of catastrophically-cooled plasma, outline the loops and provide eye-catching evidence of the recent…

Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…

We study the waiting time distributions of solar flares observed in hard X-rays with ISEE-3/ICE, HXRBS/SMM, WATCH/GRANAT, BATSE/CGRO, and RHESSI. Although discordant results and interpretations have been published earlier, based on…

In analyses of rare-events, regardless of the domain of application, class-imbalance issue is intrinsic. Although the challenges are known to data experts, their explicit impact on the analytic and the decisions made based on the findings…