Related papers: A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. IV. Eva…
This study focuses on forecasting major (>=M-class) solar flares that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. We construct two types of datasets using the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and develop a flare…
Accurate and reliable predictions of solar flares are essential due to their potentially significant impact on Earth and space-based infrastructure. Although deep learning models have shown notable predictive capabilities in this domain,…
Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time…
The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution…
We consider the flare prediction problem that distinguishes flare-imminent active regions that produce an M- or X-class flare in the future 24 hours, from quiet active regions that do not produce any flare within $\pm 24$ hours. Using…
We developed a reliable probabilistic solar flare forecasting model using a deep neural network, named Deep Flare Net-Reliable (DeFN-R). The model can predict the maximum classes of flares that occur in the following 24 h after observing…
We study the decay phase of solar flares in several spectral bands using a method based on that successfully applied to white light flares observed on an M4 dwarf. We selected and processed 102 events detected in the Sun-as-a-star flux…
Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed…
Solar flares are large-scale releases of energy in the solar atmosphere, which are characterised by rapid changes in the hydrodynamic properties of plasma from the photosphere to the corona. Solar physicists have typically attempted to…
An all-clear flare prediction is a type of solar flare forecasting that puts more emphasis on predicting non-flaring instances (often relatively small flares and flare quiet regions) with high precision while still maintaining valuable…
A demonstrated failure mode for operational solar flare forecasting is the inability to forecast flares that occur near, or just beyond, the solar limb. To address this shortcoming, we develop a "4pi" full-heliosphere event forecasting…
Adverse space weather effects can often be traced to solar flares, prediction of which has drawn significant research interests. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) produces full-disk vector magnetograms with continuous high cadence,…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…
Solar flares are transient yet dramatic events in the atmosphere of the Sun, during which a vast amount of magnetic energy is liberated. This energy is subsequently transported through the solar atmosphere or into the heliosphere, and…
Whilst the most dynamic solar active regions (ARs) are known to flare frequently, predicting the occurrence of individual flares and their magnitude, is very much a developing field with strong potentials for machine learning applications.…
Solar flares are intense eruptive events caused by the rapid release of magnetic energy, often impacting Earth's space environment through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Accurate flare prediction is critical for space…
Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to…
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…
Current post-processing techniques for the correction of atmospheric seeing in solar observations -- such as Speckle interferometry and Phase Diversity methods -- have limitations when it comes to their reconstructive capabilities of solar…
Solar flares commonly have a hot onset precursor event" (HOPE), detectable from soft X-ray observations. Detecting this requires subtraction of pre-flare fluxes from the non-flaring Sun prior to the event, fitting an isothermal emission…