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Precision medicine aims to tailor therapeutic decisions to individual patient characteristics. This objective is commonly formalized through dynamic treatment regimes, which use statistical and machine learning methods to derive sequential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-23 Sophia Yazzourh , Erica E. M. Moodie

In this paper, we explore optimal treatment allocation policies that target distributional welfare. Most literature on treatment choice has considered utilitarian welfare based on the conditional average treatment effect (ATE). While…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-30 Yifan Cui , Sukjin Han

We consider the problem of selecting the optimal subgroup to treat when data on covariates is available from a randomized trial or observational study. We distinguish between four different settings including (i) treatment selection when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-28 Tyler J. VanderWeele , Alex R. Luedtke , Mark J. van der Laan , Ronald C. Kessler

Estimating dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) from retrospective observational data is challenging as some degree of unmeasured confounding is often expected. In this work, we develop a framework of estimating properly defined "optimal" DTRs…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-19 Shuxiao Chen , Bo Zhang

Many applied decision-making problems have a dynamic component: The policymaker needs not only to choose whom to treat, but also when to start which treatment. For example, a medical doctor may choose between postponing treatment (watchful…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-01 Xinkun Nie , Emma Brunskill , Stefan Wager

Recent statistical and reinforcement learning methods have significantly advanced patient care strategies. However, these approaches face substantial challenges in high-stakes contexts, including missing data, inherent stochasticity, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Harsh Parikh , Quinn Lanners , Zade Akras , Sahar F. Zafar , M. Brandon Westover , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

We consider identification of optimal dynamic treatment regimes in a setting where time-varying treatments are confounded by hidden time-varying confounders, but proxy variables of the unmeasured confounders are available. We show that,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-19 Jeffrey Zhang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Estimating optimal dynamic policies from offline data is a fundamental problem in dynamic decision making. In the context of causal inference, the problem is known as estimating the optimal dynamic treatment regime. Even though there exists…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-15 Qizhao Chen , Morgane Austern , Vasilis Syrgkanis

A treatment regime formalizes personalized medicine as a function from individual patient characteristics to a recommended treatment. A high-quality treatment regime can improve patient outcomes while reducing cost, resource consumption,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-30 Yichi Zhang , Eric B. Laber , Anastasios Tsiatis , Marie Davidian

We study the design of multi-armed parallel group clinical trials to estimate personalized treatment rules that identify the best treatment for a given patient with given covariates. Assuming that the outcomes in each treatment arm are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-13 David Azriel , Yosef Rinott , Martin Posch

In treatment allocation problems the individuals to be treated often arrive sequentially. We study a problem in which the policy maker is not only interested in the expected cumulative welfare but is also concerned about the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-24 Anders Bredahl Kock , Martin Thyrsgaard

This paper studies algorithmic decision-making in the presence of strategic individual behaviors, where an ML model is used to make decisions about human agents and the latter can adapt their behavior strategically to improve their future…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Tian Xie , Xueru Zhang

There is increasing interest in allocating treatments based on observed individual characteristics: examples include targeted marketing, individualized credit offers, and heterogeneous pricing. Treatment personalization introduces…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-06 Evan Munro

There has been significant attention given to developing data-driven methods for tailoring patient care based on individual patient characteristics. Dynamic treatment regimes formalize this through a sequence of decision rules that map…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Eric J. Rose , Erica E. M. Moodie , Susan Shortreed

Learning is a complex dynamical process shaped by a range of interconnected decisions. Careful design of hyperparameter schedules for artificial neural networks or efficient allocation of cognitive resources by biological learners can…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-07-11 Francesca Mignacco , Francesco Mori

Health policy decisions regarding patient treatment strategies require consideration of both treatment effectiveness and cost. Optimizing treatment rules with respect to effectiveness may result in prohibitively expensive strategies; on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-20 Nicholas Illenberger , Andrew J. Spieker , Nandita Mitra

The treatment allocation mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized by maximizing the nonparametric efficiency bound for a specific measure of treatment effect. Optimal treatment allocations which may or may not depend on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

Motivated by applications such as college admission and insurance rate determination, we propose an evaluation problem where the inputs are controlled by strategic individuals who can modify their features at a cost. A learner can only…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-11-05 Nika Haghtalab , Nicole Immorlica , Brendan Lucier , Jack Z. Wang

Designing individualized allocation of treatments so as to maximize the equilibrium welfare of interacting agents has many policy-relevant applications. Focusing on sequential decision games of interacting agents, this paper develops a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-15 Toru Kitagawa , Guanyi Wang

In many applied fields, researchers are often interested in tailoring treatments to unit-level characteristics in order to optimize an outcome of interest. Methods for identifying and estimating treatment policies are the subject of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-06 Eli Sherman , David Arbour , Ilya Shpitser