Related papers: Beveridgean Unemployment Gap
We empirically investigate the distributional effects of inflation on workers' unemployment tail risks using instrumental variable quantile regression. We find that supply-driven inflation disproportionately raises unemployment tail risks…
Economic growth is measured as the rate of relative change in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Yet, when incomes follow random multiplicative growth, the ensemble-average (GDP per capita) growth rate is higher than the time-average…
Economic models assume that payroll tax burdens fall fully on workers, but where does tax incidence fall when taxes are firm-specific and time-varying? Unemployment insurance in the United States has the key feature of varying both across…
The aim here is to address the origins of sustainability for the real growth rate in the United States. For over a century of observations on the real GDP per capita of the United States a sustainable two percent growth rate has been…
In this paper, we explore the relationship between state-level household income inequality and macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States. Using a novel large-scale macroeconometric model, we shed light on regional disparities of…
We investigate state-dependent effects of fiscal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the US economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment…
An employer contracts with a worker to incentivize efforts whose productivity depends on ability; the worker then enters a market that pays him contingent on ability evaluation. With non-additive monitoring technology, the interdependence…
This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false…
The Index of Dissimilarity (ID), widely utilized in economic literature as a measure of segregation, is inadequate for cross-country or time series studies due to its failure to account for structural variations across countries' labor…
This study analyzes the gender gap in desired wages using large administrative data of public job referrals, which allows us to look at the desired salaries of individuals from a wider wage distribution. We conduct a decomposition analysis…
In this article, we formulate and analyze a new non-linear mathematical model to describe the dynamics of unemployment with a discouraged working population. We consider five dynamic variables, namely, unskilled unemployed individuals,…
Since the 1960s, the question whether markets are efficient or not is controversially discussed. One reason for the difficulty to overcome the controversy is the lack of a universal, but also precise, quantitative definition of efficiency…
This paper resolves the empirical puzzle in the public-private wage literature: why studies using similar data reach contradictory conclusions about wage premiums and penalties. Utilizing rich French administrative panel data (2012-2019),…
We consider the role of unobservables, such as differences in search frictions, reservation wages, and productivities for the explanation of wage differentials between migrants and natives. We disentangle these by estimating an empirical…
We study how firm heterogeneity and market power affect macroeconomic fragility, defined as the probability of long slumps. We propose a theory in which the positive interaction between firm entry, competition and factor supply can give…
The article develops a general equilibrium model where power relations are central in the determination of unemployment, profitability, and income distribution. The paper contributes to the market forces versus institutions debate by…
To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator -- the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the…
Our study shows that many firms would accumulate at zero output level (namely, Bankruptcy status) if a perfectly competitive market reaches full employment (namely, those people who should obtain employment have obtained employment). As a…
The persistence of poverty is not well explained by who is poor. We argue the relevant object of measurement is trappedness--expected escape time from deprivation--which varies systematically across institutional environments and is…
Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data on the period 1982-1992, this paper investigates some mechanisms of the labor market in the United States. This market is analyzed as a stable structure constituted of segments which present…