Related papers: Beveridgean Unemployment Gap
We test the international applicability of Friedman s famous plucking theory of the business cycle in 12 advanced economies between 1970 and 2021. We find that in countries where labour markets are flexible (Australia, Canada, United…
Among other macroeconomic indicators, the monthly release of U.S. unemployment rate figures in the Employment Situation report by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics gets a lot of media attention and strongly affects the stock markets. I…
Recently, scholars from law and political science have introduced metrics which use only election outcomes (and not district geometry) to assess the presence of partisan gerrymandering. The most high-profile example of such a tool is the…
The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…
'Animal spirits' or confidence levels are heavily dependent on how current conditions compare to adaptation levels. In the US, with its highly flexible labor markets and weak safety nets, the unemployment rate seems to serve as a…
I have analyzed the practicality of the Evans Rule in the state based forward guidance and possible ways to reform it. I examined the biases, measurement errors, and other limitations extant in the unemployment and the inflation rate in the…
Although employment web sites have recently become the main source for re- cruitment and selection process, the relation between those sites and unemploy- ment rates is seldom addressed. Deriving data from 32 countries and 427 web sites,…
This paper studies the extent to which the cyclicality of occupational mobility shapes that of aggregate unemployment and its duration distribution. We document the relation between workers' occupational mobility and unemployment duration…
This paper investigates the barriers to gender convergence using Japan as a salient environment to explore the interactive effects of labor market structures and social norms. I develop a quantitative model of household labor supply where…
This study investigates the emerging phenomenon of "ghost hiring" or "ghost jobs", where employers advertise job openings without intending to fill them. Using a novel dataset from Glassdoor and employing a LLM-BERT technique, I find that…
Historical studies of labor markets frequently lack data on individual income. The occupational income score (OCCSCORE) is often used as an alternative measure of labor market outcomes. We consider the consequences of using OCCSCORE when…
This paper examines the impact of racial discrimination in hiring on employment, wages, and wealth disparities between black and white workers. Using a labor search-and-matching model with racially prejudiced and non-prejudiced firms, we…
I examine changes in matching efficiency and elasticities in Japan's labor market via Hello Work for unemployed workers from January 1972 to April 2024 using a nonparametric identification approach by y Lange and Papageorgiou (2020). I find…
Labor market institutions are central for modern economies, and their polices can directly affect unemployment rates and economic growth. At the individual level, unemployment often has a detrimental impact on people's well-being and…
This paper presents a novel approach to distinguish the impact of duration-dependent forces and adverse selection on the exit rate from unemployment by leveraging variation in the length of layoff notices. I formulate a Mixed Hazard model…
The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35…
This study explores the impact of unemployment benefits on employment quality, job stability, and tenure within complex labour market dynamics. Given the macroeconomic consequences of changes in unemployment benefits, including their impact…
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor…
Homelessness in American cities is becoming an ever more prominent issue, but its causes remain contested, ranging from mental health and substance abuse to housing affordability and local labor markets. To shed light on this issue, I…