Related papers: On the time shift phenomena in epidemic models
We consider the spread of a supercritical stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemic on a configuration model random graph. We mainly focus on the final stages of a large outbreak and provide limit results for the duration…
Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…
The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communal diseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos type networks since they do…
Containment measures implemented by some countries to suppress the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in a slowdown of the epidemic characterized by time series of daily infections plateauing over extended periods of time. We prove that such…
It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…
The generation interval is the time between the infection time of an infected person and the infection time of his or her infector. Probability density functions for generation intervals have been an important input for epidemic models and…
The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…
To describe the dynamics of social distancing during pandemics, we follow previous efforts to combine basic epidemiology models (e.g. SIR - Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) with game and economy theory tools. We present an extension of…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
To simplify mathematical models of disease spread, we often assume equal contact rates among hosts, but real-world scenarios differ. Network-based frameworks help capture these complexities and structural variations in actual systems. We…
This paper seeks to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic based on daily published data from Worldometer website, using a time-dependent SIR model. Our findings indicate that this model fits well such data, for different chosen…
In this work, the SIR epidemiological model is reformulated so to highlight the important {\em effective reproduction number}, as well as to account for the {\em generation time}, inverse of the {\em incidence rate}, and the {\em infectious…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
We have derived the governing equations for an SIR model with delay terms in both the infectivity and recovery of the disease. The equations are derived by modelling the dynamics as a continuous time random walk, where individuals move…
We consider a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) system where the transmission rate may be temporarily reduced for a fixed amount of time. We show that in order to minimize the total number of fatalities, the transmission rate should be…
Recently, emerging epidemics like COVID-19 and its variants require predictive mathematical models to implement suitable responses in order to limit their negative and profound impact on society. The SIR (Susceptible-InfectedRemoved) system…
We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration…