Related papers: On the time shift phenomena in epidemic models
Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…
In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to…
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…
We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…
In this work, we study the epidemic SIR model on a system which takes into consideration face-to-face interaction networks. This approach has been used as prototype to describe people interactions in different kinds of social organizations…
Compartmental models like the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)\cite{Kermack1927} and its extensions such as the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIRS)\cite{Ottar2020,Ignazio2021,Grimm2021,Paoluzzi2021} are commonly used to model…
This paper studies the distribution function of the time of extinction of a subcritical epidemic, when a large enough proportion of the population has been immunized and/or the infectivity of the infectious individuals has been reduced, so…
In the standard SIR model, infected vertices infect their neighbors at rate $\lambda$ independently across each edge. They also recover at rate $\gamma$. In this work we consider the SIR-$\omega$ model where the graph structure itself…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of…
We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic,…
The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…
Infectious disease epidemiologists routinely fit stochastic epidemic models to time series data to elucidate infectious disease dynamics, evaluate interventions, and forecast epidemic trajectories. To improve computational tractability,…
In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…
We consider the SIR model and study the first time the number of infected individuals begins to decrease and the first time this population is below a given threshold. We interpret these times as functions of the initial susceptible and…
Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model, an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium, France, New York City and…
We study SIR type epidemics on graphs in two scenarios: (i) when the initial infections start from a well connected central region, (ii) when initial infections are distributed uniformly. Previously, \'Odor et al. demonstrated on a few…
Compartmental transmission models have become an invaluable tool to study the dynamics of infectious diseases. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is known to have an exact semi-analytical solution. In the current study, the…