Related papers: On the time shift phenomena in epidemic models
To understand the impact of vaccination, we consider a SIVR (susceptible-infected-vaccinated-recovered) model which combines impulsive vaccination into the classical SIR model. The final size is firstly defined and estimated, and then the…
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…
Case isolation, that is, detection and isolation of infected individuals in order to prevent spread, is a strategy to curb infectious disease epidemics. Here, we study the efficiency of a case isolation strategy subject to time delays in…
The study of epidemiological systems has generated deep interest in exploring the dynamical complexity of common infectious diseases driven by seasonally varying contact rates. Mathematical modeling and field observations have shown that,…
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…
Among the statistical tools for online information diffusion modeling, both epidemic models and Hawkes point processes are popular choices. The former originate from epidemiology, and consider information as a viral contagion which spreads…
Two stochastic models of susceptible/infected/removed (SIR) type are introduced for the spread of infection through a spatially-distributed population. Individuals are initially distributed at random in space, and they move continuously…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…
We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. Though the described Bayesian computational framework is general, we look at a specific application to the…
In the study of infectious diseases on networks, researchers calculate epidemic thresholds to help forecast whether a disease will eventually infect a large fraction of a population. Because network structure typically changes in time,…
As the world grows increasingly connected, infectious disease transmission and outbreaks have become a pressing global concern for public health officials and policymakers. While policy interventions to contain and prevent the spread of…
In a collection of particles performing independent random walks on $\mathbb Z^d$ we study the spread of an infection with SIR dynamics. Susceptible particles become infected when they meet an infected particle. Infected particles heal and…
We study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly over all graphs with certain critical, heavy-tailed degree distributions. For this model, each vertex infects all its susceptible neighbors and…
The spread of an infectious disease can, in some cases, promote the propagation of other pathogens favouring violent outbreaks, which cause a discontinuous transition to an endemic state. The topology of the contact network plays a crucial…
In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the…
Emergence of new diseases and elimination of existing diseases is a key public health issue. In mathematical models of epidemics, such phenomena involve the process of infections and recoveries passing through a critical threshold where the…
This paper focuses on and analyzes realistic SIR models that take stochasticity into account. The proposed systems are applicable to most incidence rates that are used in the literature including the bilinear incidence rate, the…
This article is devoted to the analysis of a particle system model for epidemics among a finite population with susceptible, infective and removed individuals (SIR). The infection mechanism depends on the relative distance between…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…