Related papers: Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of football mat…
The evaluation of probabilistic forecasts plays a central role both in the interpretation and in the use of forecast systems and their development. Probabilistic scores (scoring rules) provide statistical measures to assess the quality of…
Scoring rules measure the deviation between a probabilistic forecast and reality. Strictly proper scoring rules have the property that for any forecast, the mathematical expectation of the score of a forecast p by the lights of p is…
What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring…
In situations where forecasters are scored on the quality of their probabilistic predictions, it is standard to use `proper' scoring rules to perform such scoring. These rules are desirable because they give forecasters no incentive to lie…
Averages of proper scoring rules are often used to rank probabilistic forecasts. In many cases, the individual terms in these averages are based on observations and forecasts from different distributions. We show that some of the most…
When predicting future events, it is common to issue forecasts that are probabilistic, in the form of probability distributions over the range of possible outcomes. Such forecasts can be evaluated using proper scoring rules. Proper scoring…
Scoring rules are an important tool for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasting schemes. In the binary case, scoring rules (which are strictly proper) allow for a decomposition into terms related to the resolution and to the…
Forecast of football outcomes in terms of Home Win, Draw and Away Win relies largely on ex ante probability elicitation of these events and ex post verification of them via computation of probability scoring rules (Brier, Ranked…
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…
Proper scoring rules are used to assess the out-of-sample accuracy of probabilistic forecasts, with different scoring rules rewarding distinct aspects of forecast performance. Herein, we re-investigate the practice of using proper scoring…
Scoring rules assess the quality of probabilistic forecasts, by assigning a numerical score based on the predictive distribution and on the event or value that materializes. A scoring rule is proper if it encourages truthful reporting. It…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function…
A scoring rule is a loss function measuring the quality of a quoted probability distribution $Q$ for a random variable $X$, in the light of the realized outcome $x$ of $X$; it is proper if the expected score, under any distribution $P$ for…
Scoring rules are used to evaluate the quality of predictions that take the form of probability distributions. A scoring rule is strictly proper if its expected value is uniquely minimized by the true probability distribution. One of the…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields including meteorology, hydrology, economics, and demography. In typical applications, many alternative statistical…
Proper scoring rules are methods for encouraging honest assessment of probability distributions. Just like likelihood, a proper scoring rule can be applied to supply an unbiased estimating equation for any statistical model, and the theory…
Ordinal classification models assign higher penalties to predictions further away from the true class. As a result, they are appropriate for relevant diagnostic tasks like disease progression prediction or medical image grading. The…
There are several scoring rules that one can choose from in order to score probabilistic forecasting models or estimate model parameters. Whilst it is generally agreed that proper scoring rules are preferable, there is no clear criterion…
The non-scientific event of a soccer match is analysed on a strictly scientific level. The analysis is based on the recently introduced concept of a team fitness (Eur. Phys. J. B 67, 445, 2009) and requires the use of finite-size scaling. A…
This note proposes a penalty criterion for assessing correct score forecasting in a soccer match. The penalty is based on hierarchical priorities for such a forecast i.e., i) Win, Draw and Loss exact prediction and ii) normalized Euclidian…