Proper local scoring rules on discrete sample spaces
Abstract
A scoring rule is a loss function measuring the quality of a quoted probability distribution for a random variable , in the light of the realized outcome of ; it is proper if the expected score, under any distribution for , is minimized by quoting . Using the fact that any differentiable proper scoring rule on a finite sample space is the gradient of a concave homogeneous function, we consider when such a rule can be local in the sense of depending only on the probabilities quoted for points in a nominated neighborhood of . Under mild conditions, we characterize such a proper local scoring rule in terms of a collection of homogeneous functions on the cliques of an undirected graph on the space . A useful property of such rules is that the quoted distribution need only be known up to a scale factor. Examples of the use of such scoring rules include Besag's pseudo-likelihood and Hyv\"{a}rinen's method of ratio matching.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1104.2224,
title = {Proper local scoring rules on discrete sample spaces},
author = {A. Philip Dawid and Steffen Lauritzen and Matthew Parry},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1104.2224},
year = {2012}
}
Comments
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS972 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)