English

Proper local scoring rules on discrete sample spaces

Statistics Theory 2012-06-01 v3 Statistics Theory

Abstract

A scoring rule is a loss function measuring the quality of a quoted probability distribution QQ for a random variable XX, in the light of the realized outcome xx of XX; it is proper if the expected score, under any distribution PP for XX, is minimized by quoting Q=PQ=P. Using the fact that any differentiable proper scoring rule on a finite sample space X{\mathcal{X}} is the gradient of a concave homogeneous function, we consider when such a rule can be local in the sense of depending only on the probabilities quoted for points in a nominated neighborhood of xx. Under mild conditions, we characterize such a proper local scoring rule in terms of a collection of homogeneous functions on the cliques of an undirected graph on the space X{\mathcal{X}}. A useful property of such rules is that the quoted distribution QQ need only be known up to a scale factor. Examples of the use of such scoring rules include Besag's pseudo-likelihood and Hyv\"{a}rinen's method of ratio matching.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1104.2224,
  title  = {Proper local scoring rules on discrete sample spaces},
  author = {A. Philip Dawid and Steffen Lauritzen and Matthew Parry},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1104.2224},
  year   = {2012}
}

Comments

Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS972 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

R2 v1 2026-06-21T17:52:56.866Z