Related papers: Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA)
The hierarchical prior used in Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) induces a posterior geometry prone to frustrate inference algorithms. Marginalizing out the latent Gaussian variable using an integrated Laplace approximation removes the…
In Bayesian inference, making deductions about a parameter of interest requires one to sample from or compute an integral against a posterior distribution. A popular method to make these computations cheaper in high-dimensional settings is…
Large neural networks trained on large datasets have become the dominant paradigm in machine learning. These systems rely on maximum likelihood point estimates of their parameters, precluding them from expressing model uncertainty. This may…
We introduce incremental variational inference and apply it to latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). Incremental variational inference is inspired by incremental EM and provides an alternative to stochastic variational inference. Incremental…
The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…
This paper proposes a two-stage estimation approach for a spatial misalignment scenario that is motivated by the epidemiological problem of linking pollutant exposures and health outcomes. We use the integrated nested Laplace approximation…
The Laplace approximation is an old, but frequently used method to approximate integrals for Bayesian calculations. In this paper we develop an extension of the Laplace approximation, by applying it iteratively to the residual, i.e., the…
Datasets that exhibit non-Gaussian characteristics are common in many fields, while the current modeling framework and available software for non-Gaussian models is limited. We introduce Linear Latent Non-Gaussian Models (LLnGMs), a unified…
Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) has emerged as a new paradigm for cost-efficient fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs). However, fine-tuned LLMs often become overconfident especially when fine-tuned on small datasets. Bayesian methods,…
Parameter estimation and associated uncertainty quantification is an important problem in dynamical systems characterized by ordinary differential equation (ODE) models that are often nonlinear. Typically, such models have analytically…
The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a popular model for analyzing and forecasting extreme weather data. To increase prediction accuracy, spatial information is often pooled via a latent Gaussian process (GP) on the GEV…
Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a well-established statistical tool for modeling complex nonlinear relationships between covariates and a response assumed to have a conditional distribution in the exponential family. In this article,…
We introduce the sequential neural posterior and likelihood approximation (SNPLA) algorithm. SNPLA is a normalizing flows-based algorithm for inference in implicit models, and therefore is a simulation-based inference method that only…
The ETAS models are currently the most popular in the field of earthquake forecasting. The MCMC method is time-consuming and limited by parameter correlation while bringing parameter uncertainty. The INLA-based method "inlabru" solves these…
The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this…
We present an R package bssm for Bayesian non-linear/non-Gaussian state space modelling. Unlike the existing packages, bssm allows for easy-to-use approximate inference based on Gaussian approximations such as the Laplace approximation and…
A new method is introduced which uses higher-order Laplace approximation to evaluate functional integrals much faster than existing methods. An implementation in MATLAB is called SLAM-FIT (Sparse Laplace Approximation Method for Functional…
Numerous real-world decisions rely on machine learning algorithms and require calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The dominant approach to quantifying the…
A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…
Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…