Related papers: Dealing with Stochastic Volatility in Time Series …
In this article, we introduce the R package portes with extensive illustrative applications. The asymptotic distributions and the Monte Carlo procedures of the most popular univariate and multivariate portmanteau test statistics, including…
Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is used for Bayesian analysis of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The HMC algorithm is one of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and it updates all…
This paper explores stochastic modeling approaches to elucidate the intricate dynamics of stock prices and volatility in financial markets. Beginning with an overview of Brownian motion and its historical significance in finance, we delve…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…
Label switching is a well-known and fundamental problem in Bayesian estimation of mixture or hidden Markov models. In case that the prior distribution of the model parameters is the same for all states, then both the likelihood and…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods are a powerful framework for approximating the posterior distribution of a state variable in a sequential manner. They provide an attractive way of analyzing dynamic systems in real-time, taking into account…
The "backward simulation" of a stochastic process is defined as the stochastic dynamics that trace a time-reversed path from the target region to the initial configuration. If the probabilities calculated by the original simulation are…
Motivated by empirical evidence for rough volatility models, this paper investigates continuous-time mean-variance (MV) portfolio selection under the Volterra Heston model. Due to the non-Markovian and non-semimartingale nature of the…
This work presents a guide for the use of some of the functions of the R package "multiColl" for the detection of near multicollinearity. The main contribution, in comparison to other existing packages in R or other econometric software, is…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) has transformed Bayesian model inference over the past three decades: mainly because of this, Bayesian inference is now a workhorse of applied scientists. Under general conditions, MCMC sampling converges…
In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…
This paper studies a continuous-time market {under stochastic environment} where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a target terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return with multiple stocks and a…
We consider a continuous-time stochastic volatility model. The model contains a stationary volatility process, the multivariate density of the finite dimensional distributions of which we aim to estimate. We assume that we observe the…
In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for…
When an unbiased estimator of the likelihood is used within a Metropolis--Hastings chain, it is necessary to trade off the number of Monte Carlo samples used to construct this estimator against the asymptotic variances of averages computed…
In risk management it is desirable to grasp the essential statistical features of a time series representing a risk factor. This tutorial aims to introduce a number of different stochastic processes that can help in grasping the essential…
We present a systematic way to analyze and model systems having many characteristic time-scales. The method we propose is employed for a test-case of a meandering jet model manifesting chaotic tracer dispersion with long time-correlations.…
Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is a popular method for estimating the parameter posterior distribution for complex statistical models and stochastic processes that possess a computationally intractable likelihood function. Instead of…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…