Related papers: Central limit theorem for a partially observed int…
In this paper, we focus on studying central limit theorems for functionals of some specific stationary random processes. In classical probability theory, it is well-known that for non-linear functionals of stationary Gaussian sequences, we…
We study a multivariate, non-linear Hawkes process $Z^N$ on the complete graph with $N$ nodes. Each vertex is either excitatory (probability $p$) or inhibitory (probability $1-p$). We take the mean-field limit of $Z^N$, leading to a…
Performativity of predictions refers to the phenomenon where prediction-informed decisions influence the very targets they aim to predict -- a dynamic commonly observed in policy-making, social sciences, and economics. In this paper, we…
In this article, we fill a gap in the literature on Hawkes processes. In particular, we derive a CLT for a non linear compound marked Hawkes process. We also provide an upper bound on the convergence rate using the functional 1-Wasserstein…
In a paper from 1995, Wormald gave general criteria for certain parameters in a family of discrete random processes to converge to the solution of a system of differential equations. Based on this method, we show that if some further…
This paper studies nonparametric estimation of parameters of multivariate Hawkes processes. We consider the Bayesian setting and derive posterior concentration rates. First rates are derived for L1-metrics for stochastic intensities of the…
We provide new limit theory for functionals of a general class of processes lying at the boundary between stationarity and nonstationarity -- what we term weakly nonstationary processes (WNPs). This includes, as leading examples, fractional…
Let $p_1,...,p_{s+1}$ be distinct primes and let $T_{p_i}$ be the von Niemann - Kakutani adding machine $(1 \leq i \leq s)$, $T_{\mathcal{P}}(\mathbf{x}) =(T_{p_1}(x_1),..., T_{p_s}(x_s))$. Let $y_i \in (0,1)$ be a $p_{s+1}$-rational $(1…
This paper aims to establish a central limit theorem for Markov processes conditioned not to be absorbed under a very general assumption on quasi-stationarity for the underlying process. To do so, a central limit theorem has been…
The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random,…
We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…
In this paper we consider some non linear Hawkes processes with signed reproduction function (or memory kernel) thus exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. We provide a Law of Large Numbers, a Central Limit Theorem and large…
A central limit theorem is proved for some strictly stationary sequences of random variables that satisfy certain mixing conditions and are subjected to the "shrinking operators" $U_r(x):=[\max\{|x|-r,0\}]\cdot x/|x|,\ r \ge 0$. For…
A compound Poisson process whose parameters are all unknown is observed at finitely many equispaced times. Nonparametric estimators of the jump and L\'evy distributions are proposed and functional central limit theorems using the uniform…
Maximum likelihood method is widely used for parameter estimation in high energy physics. To consider various systematic uncertainties, tens of or even hundreds of nuisance parameters (NP) are introduced in a likelihood fit. The constraint…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…
The aim of this paper is to get asymptotic deviation bounds via a Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for cumulative processes also known as compound renewal processes or renewal-reward processes. These processes cumulate independent random…
In this paper, we prove a central limit theorem and a moderate deviation principle for a perturbed stochastic Cahn-Hilliard equation defined on [0, T]x [0, \pi]^d, with d \in {1,2,3}. This equation is driven by a space-time white noise. The…
We establish central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes in infinite dimension with spatially dependent and non-necessarily local branching mechanisms. This result relies on a fourth moment…
We consider a class of Gibbs measures defined with respect to increments $\{\omega(t)-\omega(s)\}_{s<t}$ of $d$-dimensional Wiener measure, with the underlying Hamiltonian carrying interactions of the form $H(t-s,\omega(t)-\omega(s))$ that…