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Cloud-related parameterizations remain a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections. Although machine learning holds promise for Earth system models (ESMs), many data-driven parameterizations lack interpretability, physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-25 Arthur Grundner , Tom Beucler , Julien Savre , Axel Lauer , Manuel Schlund , Veronika Eyring

Changing climate signals and the continuous world population growth requires proper hydrologic risk analysis to build and operate water resource infrastructures in a sustainable way. Although modernized computational facilities are becoming…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2022-08-30 Victor Peñaranda , David Serrano , Mahesh Maskey

Reliable wind speed data is crucial for applications such as estimating local (future) wind power. Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide forecasts over multi-decadal periods. However, their outputs vary…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-19 Sofia Morelli , Nina Effenberger , Luca Schmidt , Nicole Ludwig

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-02-16 Ryan Keisler

System identification method (SIM) was used to evaluate the Earth equilibrium climate sensitivity. According to our simulations, the equilibrium climate sensitivity was found to be between 2 deg C and 7 deg C. Analysis of the changes in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-16 Alexei V Karnaukhov , Sergei F Lyuksyutov , Artem V Aliakin , Mikhail E Prokhorov , Sergei I Blinnikov

Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we…

We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-06 Callum Leach , Kevin Ewans , Philip Jonathan

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Christopher Bülte , Sohir Maskey , Philipp Scholl , Jonas von Berg , Gitta Kutyniok

Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-14 Haotian Xie , Haoxian Liu , Jingfang Fan , Ying Tang

Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-10-29 Nicola Scafetta

Sites for next-generation telescopes are chosen decades before the first light of a telescope. Site selection is usually based on recent measurements over a period that is too short to account for long-term changes in observing conditions…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-09-28 C. Haslebacher , M. -E. Demory , B. -O. Demory , M. Sarazin , P. L. Vidale

Global warming, the phenomenon of increasing global average temperature in the recent decades, is receiving wide attention due to its very significant adverse effects on climate. Whether global warming will continue even in the future, is a…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-24 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-06 Reetam Majumder , Brian J. Reich , Benjamin A. Shaby

Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) have gained widespread interest because of the unprecedented detail with which they resolve the global climate. However, it remains difficult to quantify objective differences in how GSRMs resolve…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-05 Griffin Mooers , Mike Pritchard , Tom Beucler , Prakhar Srivastava , Harshini Mangipudi , Liran Peng , Pierre Gentine , Stephan Mandt

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are widely used for future climate projections, but their coarse spatial resolution and systematic biases limit their direct use for impact studies. This limitation is particularly critical for wind-related…

Machine learning (ML) offers a computationally efficient approach for generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate projections, but deterministic ML methods often smooth fine-scale structures and underestimate extremes. While…

Effective water resource management depends on accurate projections of flows in water channels. For projected climate data, use of different General Circulation Models (GCM) simulates contrasting results. This study shows selection of GCM…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-16 Saad Ahmed Jamal , Ammara Nusrat , Muhammad Azmat , Muhammad Osama Nusrat

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a powerful tool for modeling turbulent flow and is commonly used for urban microclimate simulations. However, traditional CFD methods are computationally intensive, requiring substantial hardware…

The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling…

Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Shuangliang Li , Siwei Li , Li Li , Weijie Zou , Jie Yang , Maolin Zhang