Related papers: Rare event process and entry times distribution fo…
Sufficient conditions are developed, under which the compound Poisson distribution has maximal entropy within a natural class of probability measures on the nonnegative integers. Recently, one of the authors [O. Johnson, {\em Stoch. Proc.…
Consider compound Poisson processes with negative drift and no negative jumps, which converge to some spectrally positive L\'evy process with non-zero L\'evy measure. In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the local time process,…
Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approx- imations of the optimal density leading to a nearly zero-variance estimator. This paper presents a new way to handle the estimation of the…
In this paper, we consider an importance sampling problem for a certain rare-event simulations involving the behavior of a diffusion process pertaining to a chain of distributed systems with random perturbations. We also assume that the…
We give general sufficient conditions to prove the convergence of marked point processes that keep record of the occurrence of rare events and of their impact for non-autonomous dynamical systems. We apply the results to sequential…
The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture…
We consider expanding systems with invariant measures that are uniformly expanding everywhere except on a small measure set and show that the limiting statistics of hitting times for zero measure sets are compound Poisson provided the…
An important functional of Poisson random measure is the negative binomial process (NBP). We use NBP to introduce a generalized Poisson-Kingman distribution and its corresponding random discrete probability measure. This random discrete…
Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…
We suggest a new hardcore Poisson-type distribution for Young diagrams with the row lengths from some finite list. A discrete variant of the time-ordered Mat\'{e}rn II process in 1D is employed. This approach is related to that based on the…
For a general free L\'evy process, we prove the existence of its higher variation processes as limits in distribution, and identify the limits in terms of the L\'evy-It\^o representation of the original process. For a general free compound…
The paper studies a class of critical Markov branching processes with infinite variance of the offspring distribution. The processes admit also an immigration component at the jump-points of a non-homogeneous Poisson process, assuming that…
We consider $N$ events that are defined on a common probability space. Those events shell have a common probability function that is symmetric with respect to interchanging the events. We ask for the probability distribution of the number…
The scaled standard Wigner matrix (symmetric with mean zero, variance one i.i.d. entries), and its limiting eigenvalue distribution, namely the semi-circular distribution, has attracted much attention. The $2k$th moment of the limit equals…
For a sample of Exponentially distributed durations we aim at point estimation and a confidence interval for its parameter. A duration is only observed if it has ended within a certain time interval, determined by a Uniform distribution.…
We study the asymptotics of the point process induced by an interacting particle system with mean-field drift interaction. Under suitable assumptions, we establish propagation of chaos for this point process: it has the same weak limit as…
The paper studies a class of critical Markov branching processes with infinite variance of the offspring distribution. The processes admit also an immigration component at the jump-points of a non-homogeneous Poisson process, assuming that…
Recently, Vadim Kaimanovich presented a particular example of a measure on a product of two standard lamplighter groups such that the Poisson boundary of the induced random walk is non-trivial, but the boundary on the marginals is trivial.…
We consider the superposition of symmetric simple exclusion dynamics speeded-up in time, with spin-flip dynamics in a one-dimensional interval with periodic boundary conditions. We show that the mixing time has an exponential lower bound in…
We consider exit problems for small white noise perturbations of a dynamical system generated by a vector field, and a domain containing a critical point with all positive eigenvalues of linearization. We prove that, in the vanishing noise…