Related papers: Rare event process and entry times distribution fo…
Temporal point processes offer a powerful framework for sampling from discrete distributions, yet they remain underutilized in existing literature. We show how to construct, for any target multivariate count distribution with…
Define the scaled empirical point process on an independent and identically distributed sequence $\{Y_i: i\le n\}$ as the random point measure with masses at $a_n^{-1} Y_i$. For suitable $a_n$ we obtain the weak limit of these point…
Rare events can potentially occur in many applications. When manifested as opportunities to be exploited, risks to be ameliorated, or certain features to be extracted, such events become of paramount significance. Due to their sporadic…
We show that a uniformly continuous random perturbation of a transitive map defines an aperiodic Harris chain which also satisfies Doeblin's condition. As a result, we get exponential decay of correlations for suitable random perturbations…
We establish sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the existence and exponential ergodicity of the Q-process, the process…
In this paper, we propose a novel robust stochastic optimization approach with a distinctive consideration for rare events, in which divergence measures are used to bound the event-wise ambiguity sets. This is done by using the Poisson…
This paper introduces a discrete-time fractional Poisson process defined as a renewal process, where the waiting times follow a discrete Mittag-Leffler distribution. We investigate its fundamental properties by explicitly deriving the…
Representations of branching Markov processes and their measure-valued limits in terms of countable systems of particles are constructed for models with spatially varying birth and death rates. Each particle has a location and a "level,"…
In the boundary driven symmetric simple exclusion process consider an open set $\ms O$ of density profiles which does not contain the stationary density profile. We prove that the first time the empirical measure visits the set $\ms O$…
We propose and analyze a generalized splitting method to sample approximately from a distribution conditional on the occurrence of a rare event. This has important applications in a variety of contexts in operations research, engineering,…
We show that the rare events present in dissipated work that enters Jarzynski equality, when mapped appropriately to the phenomenon of large deviations found in a biased coin toss, are enough to yield a quantitative work probability…
It has been recently found that a number of systems displaying crackling noise also show a remarkable behavior regarding the temporal occurrence of successive events versus their size: a scaling law for the probability distributions of…
We prove that the distributional limit of the normalised number of returns to small neighbourhoods of periodic points of non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems is compound Poisson. The returns to small balls around a fixed point in the…
Random fields are useful mathematical tools for representing natural phenomena with complex dependence structures in space and/or time. In particular, the Gaussian random field is commonly used due to its attractive properties and…
We generalize the Poisson limit theorem to binary functions of random objects whose law is invariant under the action of an amenable group. Examples include stationary random fields, exchangeable sequences, and exchangeable graphs. A…
A common assumption when modeling queuing systems is that arrivals behave like a Poisson process with constant parameter. In practice, however, call arrivals are often observed to be significantly overdispersed. This motivates that in this…
The paper considers a Cox process where the stochastic intensity function for the Poisson data model is itself a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We show that it is possible to obtain the marginal data process, namely a non-homogeneous…
In this paper we deal with the classical problem of random cover times. We investigate the distribution of the time it takes for a Poisson process of cylinders to cover a set $A \subset \mathbb{R}^d.$ This Poisson process of cylinders is…
For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…
An unbinned statistical test on cluster-like deviations from Poisson processes for point process data is introduced, presented in the context of time variability analysis of astrophysical sources in count rate experiments. The measure of…