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Price benchmarks are used to incorporate market price trends into contracts, but their use can create opportunities for manipulation by parties involved in the contract. This paper examines this issue using a realistic and tractable model…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-30 Ángel Hernando-Veciana

Cross-correlations in fluctuations of the daily exchange rates within the basket of the 100 highest-capitalization cryptocurrencies over the period October 1, 2015, through March 31, 2019, are studied. The corresponding dynamics…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-12 Stanisław Drożdż , Ludovico Minati , Paweł Oświęcimka , Marek Stanuszek , Marcin Wątorek

Summarized by the efficient market hypothesis, the idea that stock prices fully reflect all available information is always confronted with the behavior of real-world markets. While there is plenty of evidence indicating and quantifying the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-16 Luiz G. A. Alves , Higor Y. D. Sigaki , Matjaz Perc , Haroldo V. Ribeiro

Weak form of the Efficiency Market Hypothesis (EMH) excludes predictions of future market movements from historical data and makes the technical analysis (TA) out of law. However the technical analysis is widely used by traders and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Alexandra Ilinskaia , Kirill Ilinski

Transaction fee markets are essential components of blockchain economies, as they resolve the inherent scarcity in the number of transactions that can be added to each block. In early blockchain protocols, this scarcity was resolved through…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Stefanos Leonardos , Daniël Reijsbergen , Barnabé Monnot , Georgios Piliouras

The spectacular success of Bitcoin and Blockchain Technology in recent years has provided enough evidence that a widespread adoption of a common cryptocurrency system is not merely a distant vision, but a scenario that might come true in…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2019-08-30 Adam Gągol , Damian Leśniak , Damian Straszak , Michał Świętek

The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-09 Alessio Brini , Jimmie Lenz

Currently, there are no convincing proxies for the fundamentals of cryptocurrency assets. We propose a new market-to-fundamental ratio, the price-to-utility (PU) ratio, utilizing unique blockchain accounting methods. We then proxy various…

General Economics · Economics 2023-07-11 Yulin Liu , Luyao Zhang

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently gained a lot of popularity, not only as a digital form of currency but also as an investment vehicle. Online marketplaces and exchanges allow users across the world to convert…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2018-07-17 Francesco Bortolussi , Zeger Hoogeboom , Frank W. Takes

The possibility to analyze everyday monetary transactions is limited by the scarcity of available data, as this kind of information is usually considered highly sensitive. Present econophysics models are usually employed on presumed random…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-04-01 Dániel Kondor , Márton Pósfai , István Csabai , Gábor Vattay

Modern public blockchains like Ethereum rely on p2p networks to run distributed and censorship-resistant applications. With its wide adoption, it operates as a highly critical public ledger. On its transition to become more scalable and…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Mikel Cortes-Goicoechea , Tarun Mohandas-Daryanani , Jose Luis Munoz-Tapia , Leonardo Bautista-Gomez

Layer-2 (L2) blockchains inherit Ethereums security guarantees while reducing gas fees. As a result, they are gaining traction among traders at Automated Market Makers (AMMs), sparking debate over whether they contribute to liquidity…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Krzysztof Gogol , Manvir Schneider , Claudio Tessone , Benjamin Livshits

Participation in permissionless blockchains results in competition over system resources, which needs to be controlled with fees. Ethereum's current fee mechanism is implemented via a first-price auction that results in unpredictable fees…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Stefanos Leonardos , Barnabé Monnot , Daniël Reijsbergen , Stratis Skoulakis , Georgios Piliouras

Since the inception of Bitcoin in 2008, cryptocurrencies have played an increasing role in the world of e-commerce, but the recent turbulence in the cryptocurrency market in 2018 has raised some concerns about their stability and associated…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-14 Yan Gong , Raphaël Huser

In this paper we develop a linear expectile hidden Markov model for the analysis of cryptocurrency time series in a risk management framework. The methodology proposed allows to focus on extreme returns and describe their temporal evolution…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-19 Beatrice Foroni , Luca Merlo , Lea Petrella

This paper examines the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market and proposes a novel blockchain-based protocol for real estate transactions. Our analysis includes a detailed review of price trends, volatility, and correlations within the…

Cryptocurrencies have transformed financial markets with their innovative blockchain technology and volatile price movements, presenting both challenges and opportunities for predictive analytics. Ethereum, being one of the leading…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Eftychia Makri , Georgios Palaiokrassas , Sarah Bouraga , Antigoni Polychroniadou , Leandros Tassiulas

In this paper we give an elementary analysis of economics of Bitcoin that combines the transaction demand by the consumers and the supply of hashrate by miners. We argue that the decreasing block reward will have no significant effect on…

General Economics · Economics 2022-11-15 Misha Perepelitsa

The popularity of cryptocurrencies has grown significantly in recent years, and they have become an important asset for internet trading. One of the main drawbacks of cryptocurrencies is the high volatility and fluctuation in value. The…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-03-06 Wantall Newby , Nickuk Nishikawa

Based on the cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study presents a general methodology for analyzing evolving correlation structures in complex systems using the $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient \rho(q,s). By extending…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-29 Marcin Wątorek , Marija Bezbradica , Martin Crane , Jarosław Kwapień , Stanisław Drożdż
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