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In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-29 Grégory Bournassenko

This study examines the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) in Japanese stock markets (TOPIX and TSE2). In particular, we measure the degree of market efficiency by using a time-varying model approach. The empirical results show that (1) the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-18 Akihiko Noda

This study examines the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis for Bitcoin using a feedforward neural network. Due to the increasing popularity of cryptocurrencies in recent years, the question has arisen, as to whether market…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-16 Mike Kraehenbuehl , Joerg Osterrieder

The mining of bitcoin is modeled using system dynamics, showing that the past evolution of the network hash rate can be explained to a large extent by an efficient market hypothesis applied to the mining of blocks. The possibility of a…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Davide Lasi , Lukas Saul

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) famously stated that prices fully reflect the information available to traders. This critically depends on the transfer of information into prices through trading strategies. Traders optimise their…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-14 Paolo Barucca , Flaviano Morone

This study investigates the volatility of daily Bitcoin returns and multifractal properties of the Bitcoin market by employing the rolling window method and examines relationships between the volatility asymmetry and market efficiency.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-18 Tetsuya Takaishi

The efficient market hypothesis has far-reaching implications for financial trading and market stability. Whether or not cryptocurrencies are informationally efficient has therefore been the subject of intense recent investigation. Here, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-06 Higor Y. D. Sigaki , Matjaz Perc , Haroldo V. Ribeiro

In econometrics, the Efficient Market Hypothesis posits that asset prices reflect all available information in the market. Several empirical investigations show that market efficiency drops when it undergoes extreme events. Many models for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-02 Junshu Jiang , Jordan Richards , Raphaël Huser , David Bolin

Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-04-09 Laura Alessandretti , Abeer ElBahrawy , Luca Maria Aiello , Andrea Baronchelli

Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-20 Stanisław Drożdż , Robert Gębarowski , Ludovico Minati , Paweł Oświęcimka , Marcin Wątorek

This letter investigates the dynamic relationship between market efficiency, liquidity, and multifractality of Bitcoin. We find that before 2013 liquidity is low and the Hurst exponent is less than 0.5, indicating that the Bitcoin time…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-16 Tetsuya Takaishi , Takanori Adachi

This paper is the first of a series of short articles that explore the efficiency of major cryptocurrency markets. A number of statistical tests and properties of statistical distributions will be used to assess if cryptocurrency markets…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-01 Eugene Tartakovsky , Ksenia Plesovskikh , Anastasiia Sarmakeeva , Alexander Bibik

In relation to the traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market is a recent invention and the trading dynamics of all its components are readily recorded and stored. This fact opens up a unique opportunity to follow the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-11 Stanisław Drożdż , Jarosław Kwapień , Marcin Wątorek

Conventional financial models fail to explain the economic and monetary properties of cryptocurrencies due to the latter's dual nature: their usage as financial assets on the one side and their tight connection to the underlying blockchain…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-20 Constandina Koki , Stefanos Leonardos , Georgios Piliouras

We propose to study market efficiency from a computational viewpoint. Borrowing from theoretical computer science, we define a market to be \emph{efficient with respect to resources $S$} (e.g., time, memory) if no strategy using resources…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2009-09-01 Jasmina Hasanhodzic , Andrew W. Lo , Emanuele Viola

In recent years a new type of tradable assets appeared, generically known as cryptocurrencies. Among them, the most widespread is Bitcoin. Given its novelty, this paper investigates some statistical properties of the Bitcoin market. This…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-16 Aurelio F. Bariviera , María José Basgall , Waldo Hasperué , Marcelo Naiouf

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial instruments with more and more new retail investors joining the scene with each passing day. Bitcoin has always proved to determine in which way the rest of the cryptocurrency market is headed…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-22 Rahul Arulkumaran , Suyash Kumar , Shikha Tomar , Manideep Gongalla , Harshitha

This document analyzes price discovery in cryptocurrency markets by comparing centralized and decentralized exchanges, as well as spot and futures markets. The study focuses first on Ethereum (ETH) and then applies a similar approach to…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-11 Juan Plazuelo Pascual , Carlos Tardon Rubio , Juan Toro Cebada , Angel Hernando Veciana

In this study the cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market represented by the two most liquid and highest-capitalized cryptocurrencies: bitcoin and ethereum, on the one side, and the instruments representing the traditional…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-02 Marcin Wątorek , Jarosław Kwapień , Stanisław Drożdż

Cryptocurrency is a well-developed blockchain technology application that is currently a heated topic throughout the world. The public availability of transaction histories offers an opportunity to analyze and compare different…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-08-28 Jiaqi Liang , Linjing Li , Daniel Zeng
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