Related papers: Nash Bargaining Over Margin Loans to Kelly Gambler…
For sequential betting games, Kelly's theory, aimed at maximization of the logarithmic growth of one's account value, involves optimization of the so-called betting fraction $K$. In this Letter, we extend the classical formulation to allow…
We propose an analytically tractable variation of the minority game in which rational agents use probabilistic strategies. In our model, $N$ agents choose between two alternatives repeatedly, and those who are in the minority get a pay-off…
We study biased Maker-Breaker positional games between two players, one of whom is playing randomly against an opponent with an optimal strategy. In this work we focus on the case of Breaker playing randomly and Maker being "clever". The…
In 1956 John Kelly wrote a paper at Bell Labs describing the relationship between gambling and Information Theory. What came to be known as the Kelly Criterion is both an objective and a closed-form solution to sizing wagers when odds and…
We extend the projective covariant bookmaker's bets model to the forecasting gamblers case. The probability of correctness of forecasts shifts probabilities of branching. The formula for the shift of probabilities leads to the velocity…
Statistical arbitrage exploits temporal price differences between similar assets. We develop a framework to jointly identify similar assets through factors, identify mispricing and form a trading policy that maximizes risk-adjusted…
We study a network extension to the Nash bargaining game, as introduced by Kleinberg and Tardos (STOC'08), where the set of players corresponds to vertices in a graph $G=(V,E)$ and each edge $ij\in E$ represents a possible deal between…
This paper studies a competitive optimal portfolio selection problem in a model where the interest rate, the appreciation rate and volatility rate of the risky asset are all stochastic processes, thus forming a non-Markovian financial…
This paper discusses the gambling contest introduced in Seel & Strack (Gambling in contests, Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 375, Mar 2012.) and considers the impact of adding a penalty…
We develop horizon-aware anytime-valid tests and confidence sequences for bounded means under a strict deadline $N$. Using the betting/e-process framework, we cast horizon-aware betting as a finite-horizon optimal control problem with state…
We construct a diffusion approximation of a repeated game in which agents make bets on outcomes of i.i.d. random vectors and their strategies are close to an asymptotically optimal strategy. This model can be interpreted as trading in an…
In the context of a general continuous financial market model, we study whether the additional information associated with an honest time gives rise to arbitrage profits. By relying on the theory of progressive enlargement of filtrations,…
The standard game-theoretic solution concept, Nash equilibrium, assumes that all players behave rationally. If we follow a Nash equilibrium and opponents are irrational (or follow strategies from a different Nash equilibrium), then we may…
In an incomplete market setting, we consider two financial agents, who wish to price and trade a non-replicable contingent claim. Assuming that the agents are utility maximizers, we propose a transaction price which is a result of the…
We develop an approach to solve Barberis (2012)'s casino gambling model in which a gambler whose preferences are specified by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT) must decide when to stop gambling by a prescribed deadline. We assume that…
Foreign exchange is the largest financial market in the world, and it is also one of the most volatile markets. Technical analysis plays an important role in the forex market and trading algorithms are designed utilizing machine learning…
In online betting, the bookmaker can update the payoffs it offers on a particular event many times before the event takes place, and the updated payoffs may depend on the bets accumulated thus far. We study the problem of bookmaking with…
Motivated by cognitive radios, stochastic multi-player multi-armed bandits gained a lot of interest recently. In this class of problems, several players simultaneously pull arms and encounter a collision - with 0 reward - if some of them…
We consider a selfish variant of the knapsack problem. In our version, the items are owned by agents, and each agent can misrepresent the set of items she owns---either by avoiding reporting some of them (understating), or by reporting…
We propose a model where a producer and a consumer can affect the price dynamics of some commodity controlling drift and volatility of, respectively, the production rate and the consumption rate. We assume that the producer has a short…