Related papers: Cellular reproduction number, generation time and …
The seasonality of respiratory diseases (common cold, influenza, etc.) is a well-known phenomenon studied from ancient times. The development of predictive models is still not only an actual unsolved problem of mathematical epidemiology but…
Some viruses, such as human immunodeficiency virus, can infect several types of cell populations. The age of infection can also affect the dynamics of infected cells and production of viral particles. In this work, we study a virus model…
Analytical expressions for the basic reproduction number, R0, have been obtained in the past for a wide variety of mathematical models for infectious disease spread, along with expressions for the expected final size of an outbreak.…
Using a population dynamics inspired by an ensemble of growing cells, a set of fluctuation theorems linking observables measured at the lineage and population levels are derived. One of these relations implies specific inequalities…
We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…
In this paper, we carry out a computational study using the spectral decomposition of the fluctuations of a two-pathogen epidemic model around its deterministic attractor, i.e., steady state or limit cycle, to examine the role of partial…
Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without…
The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees based on viral genetic sequence data sequentially sampled from an epidemic provides estimates of the past transmission dynamics, by fitting epidemiological models to these trees. To our knowledge,…
We propose a modelling framework to analyse the stochastic behaviour of heterogeneous, multi-scale cellular populations. We illustrate our methodology with a particular example in which we study a population with an oxygen-regulated…
We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…
Chlamydiae are bacteria with an interesting unusual developmental cycle. A single bacterium in its infectious form (elementary body, EB) enters the host cell, where it converts into its dividing form (reticulate body, RB), and divides by…
We present some results of simulations of population growth and evolution, using the standard asexual Penna model, with individuals characterized by a string of bits representing a genome containing some possible mutations. After about…
Antigenic variation is the main immune escape mechanism for RNA viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2. While high mutation rates promote antigenic escape, they also induce large mutational loads and reduced fitness. It remains unclear how…
A simplified model for the growth of a population is studied in which random effects arise because reproducing individuals have a certain probability of surviving until the next breeding season and hence contributing to the next generation.…
It has been a puzzling question why some organisms reproduce sexually. Fisher and Muller hypothesized that reproducing by sex can speed up the evolution. They explained that in the sexual reproduction, recombination can combine beneficial…
The rate at which individual bacterial cells grow depends on the concentrations of cellular components such as ribosomes and proteins. These concentrations continuously fluctuate over time and are inherited from mother to daughter cells,…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
Accurate forecasting of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) outbreaks within wild bird populations necessitates models that account for complex, multi-scale transmission patterns driven by diverse factors. While conventional spatiotemporal epidemic…
Understanding the origin of infectious diseases provides scientifically based rationales for implementing public health measures that may help to avoid or mitigate future epidemics. The recent ancestors of a pandemic virus provide…
This paper uses new and existing methods to study collective trends across countries throughout the pandemic, with a focus on the multivariate time series of reproduction numbers and vaccine proliferation. We begin with a time-varying…