Related papers: A Factor Stochastic Volatility Model with Markov-S…
Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating a set of 20 high cap stocks traded at the Italian Stock Exchange, we find that there is a large number of high…
We propose how to quantify high-frequency market sentiment using high-frequency news from NASDAQ news platform and support vector machine classifiers. News arrive at markets randomly and the resulting news sentiment behaves like a…
Typically, operational risk losses are reported above a threshold. Fitting data reported above a constant threshold is a well known and studied problem. However, in practice, the losses are scaled for business and other factors before the…
In this article we model chaotic dynamics in financial markets by treating the market price, and market makers' inventory, as anharmonic oscillators with a nonlinear coupling. The market makers' risk appetite being the key parameter that…
Financial studies require volatility based models which provides useful insights on risks related to investments. Stochastic volatility models are one of the most popular approaches to model volatility in such studies. The asset returns…
Weconsider Markov decision processes arising from a Markov model of an underlying natural phenomenon. Such phenomena are usually periodic (e.g. annual) in time, and so the Markov processes modelling them must be time-inhomogeneous, with…
We provide a general probabilistic framework within which we establish scaling limits for a class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics. In the scaling limit, the joint dynamics of asset returns…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…
In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a non-stationary gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval,…
We introduce a new method to price American-style options on underlying investments governed by stochastic volatility (SV) models. The method does not require the volatility process to be observed. Instead, it exploits the fact that the…
The objective of this work is the investigation of complexity, asymmetry, stochasticity and non-linearity of the financial and economic systems by using the tools of statistical mechanics and information theory. More precisely, this thesis…
In this paper we study the dynamics of stochastic microorganism flocculation models. Given the strong influence of environmental and seasonal fluctuations that are present in these models, we propose a stochastic model that includes…
We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
This paper investigates how to measure common market risk factors using newly proposed Panel Quantile Regression Model for Returns. By exploring the fact that volatility crosses all quantiles of the return distribution and using penalized…
A discrete time stochastic model for a multiagent system given in terms of a large collection of interacting Markov chains is studied. The evolution of the interacting particles is described through a time inhomogeneous transition…
This paper introduces an extension of the Markov switching GARCH model where the volatility in each state is a convex combination of two different GARCH components with time varying weights. This model has the dynamic behavior to capture…
Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…
This paper studies a robust portfolio optimization problem under the multi-factor volatility model introduced by Christoffersen et al. (2009). The optimal strategy is derived analytically under the worst-case scenario with or without…