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Inter-cycle variations in the series of 11-year solar activity cycles have a significant impact on both the space environment and climate. Whether solar cycle variability is dominated by deterministic chaos or stochastic perturbations…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-05-12 Zi-Fan Wang , Jie Jiang , Jing-Xiu Wang

Prediction of the solar cycle is challenging but essential because it drives space weather. Several predictions with varying amplitudes of the ongoing Cycle~25 have been made. We show that an aspect of the Waldmeier effect (WE2), i.e., a…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-05-24 Pawan Kumar , Akash Biswas , Bidya Binay Karak

The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $\alpha\Omega$ dynamo wave…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-09-07 R. Simoniello , S. C. Tripathy , K. Jain , F. Hill

Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to…

The paper by Popova et al. presents an oversimplified mathematical model of solar activity with a claim of predicting/postdicting it for several millennia ahead/backwards. The work contains several flaws devaluating the results: (1) the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-10-17 Ilya G. Usoskin

Aims. The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2014-02-24 I. G. Usoskin , G. Hulot , Y. Gallet , R. Roth , A. Licht , F. Joos , G. A. Kovaltsov , E. Thebault , A. Khokhlov

Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…

Space Physics · Physics 2023-05-31 Pete Riley

Power supply from renewable resources is on a global rise where it is forecasted that renewable generation will surpass other types of generation in a foreseeable future. Increased generation from renewable resources, mainly solar and wind,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-28 Mohana Alanazi , Mohsen Mahoor , Amin Khodaei

The Sun's variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the "Hale Cycle'') as they march from their origin at $\sim$55 degrees latitude to the equator,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-07 Robert Leamon , Scott McIntosh , Alan Title

Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Jie Jiang , Piyali Chatterjee , Arnab Rai Choudhuri

We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-05 Arnab Rai Choudhuri

Solar activity and solar wind parameters decreased significantly in solar cycles (SCs) 23-24. In this paper, we analyze solar wind measurements at the rising phase of SC 25 and compare them with similar data from the previous cycles. For…

We consider multi-task regression models where the observations are assumed to be a linear combination of several latent node functions and weight functions, which are both drawn from Gaussian process priors. Driven by the problem of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-05 Astrid Dahl , Edwin V. Bonilla

Solar polar fields are essential for the solar cycle and the heliospheric magnetic field. Cycle 25 is now entering its declining phase, the critical period during which most of the cycle's polar fields are established. Therefore, reliable…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-03-31 Ruihui Wang , Jie Jiang , Yukun Luo

We consider the statistical relationship between the growth rate of activity in the early phase of a solar cycle with its subsequent amplitude on the basis of four datasets of global activity indices (Wolf sunspot number, group sunspot…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-06-18 R. Cameron M. Schüssler

Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-02-19 Irina N. Kitiashvili

The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-10-08 S. -S. Wu , G. Qin

Satellite-based solar irradiation forecasting is useful for short-term intra-day time horizons, outperforming numerical weather predictions up to 3-4 hours ahead. The main techniques for solar satellite forecast are based on sophisticated…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-09-02 Franco Marchesoni-Acland , Rodrigo Alonso Suárez

We use helioseismic data from ground and space-based instruments to analyze how solar rotation has changed since the beginning of solar Cycle 23 with emphasis on studying the differences between Cycles 23 and 24. We find that the nature of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-10-02 Sarbani Basu , H. M. Antia

Helioseismology and solar modelling have enjoyed a golden era thanks to decades-long surveys from ground-based networks such as for example GONG, BiSON, IRIS and the SOHO and SDO space missions which have provided high-quality helioseismic…