Related papers: Mapping malaria seasonality: a case study from Mad…

Many models of within-host malaria infection dynamics have been formulated since the pioneering work of Anderson et al. in 1989. Biologically, the goal of these models is to understand what governs the severity of infections, the patterns…

We developed a mathematical model to investigate the role of indirect transmission in the spread of infectious diseases, using the illustrative example of sarcoptic mange as a case study. This disease can be transmitted through direct…

We examine how spatial heterogeneity combines with mobility network structure to influence vector-borne disease dynamics. Specifically, we consider a Ross-Macdonald-type disease model on $n$ spatial locations that are coupled by host…

Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…

This paper investigates the deterministic extinction and permanence of a family of SEIRS malaria models with multiple random delays, and with a general nonlinear incidence rate. The conditions for the extinction and permanence of the…

Mesoscale convective systems MCSs play a central role in tropical rainfall and are closely linked to extreme precipitation and large scale variability. However, a quantitative understanding of their environmental controls remains…

Human mobility plays a key role on the transformation of local disease outbreaks into global pandemics. Thus, the inclusion of human movements into epidemic models has become mandatory for understanding current epidemic episodes and to…

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations…

In this paper we propose a Stochastic model for studying a spatial cholera epidemic spreading where communities (Humans and Bacteria) are spatially distributed on a one-dimensional lattice and the bacteria are transported along a network…

Over 50% of the world population is at risk of mosquito-borne diseases. Female Ae. aegypti mosquito species transmit Zika, Dengue, and Chikungunya. The spread of these diseases correlate positively with the vector population, and this…

Malaria, which primarily spreads with the bite of female anopheles mosquitos, often leads to death of people - specifically children in the age-group of 0-5 years. Clinical experts identify malaria by observing RBCs in blood smeared images…

In this paper, we develop a time-varying parameter based seasonally-adjusted Bayesian state-space model for non-stationary time series datasets where both the trend and seasonal components are present and it is the general scenario for most…

A measles outbreak occurs when the number of cases of measles in the population exceeds the typical level. Outbreaks that are not detected and managed early can increase mortality and morbidity and incur costs from activities responding to…

Malaria remains a serious health challenge in the Comoros Islands, despite ongoing control efforts. Past studies have shown reductions in cases due to prevention and treatment measures, but little work has been done to forecast future…

We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidemic variability and introduce a ranking of parameter…

Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase-differences observed at…

Spatially constrained clustering is an important field of research, particularly when it involves changes over time. Partitioning a map is not simple since there is a vast number of possible partitions within the search space. In…

Disease mapping analyses the distribution of several disease outcomes within a territory. Primary goals include identifying areas with unexpected changes in mortality rates, studying the relation among multiple diseases, and dividing the…

We describe a method for reconstructing spatially explicit maps of seasonal palaeoclimate variables from site-based reconstructions. Using a 3D-Variational technique, the method finds the best statistically unbiased, and spatially…

We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…