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Maps of infectious disease---charting spatial variations in the force of infection, degree of endemicity, and the burden on human health---provide an essential evidence base to support planning towards global health targets. Contemporary…
We study seasonal epidemic spreading in a susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible (SIRS) model on smallworld graphs. We derive a mean-field description that accurately captures the salient features of the model, most notably a phase…
Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…
We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate…
Multiple diagnostic tests are often used due to limited resources or because they provide complementary information on the epidemiology of a disease under investigation. Existing statistical methods to combine prevalence data from multiple…
Real world spatio-temporal datasets, and phenomena related to them, are often challenging to visualise or gain a general overview of. In order to summarise information encompassed in such data, we combine two well known statistical…
In climate and atmospheric research, many phenomena involve more than one meteorological spatial processes covarying in space. To understand how one process is affected by another, maximum covariance analysis (MCA) is commonly applied.…
Epidemiological models for the spread of pathogens in a population are usually only able to describe a single pathogen. This makes their application unrealistic in cases where multiple pathogens with similar symptoms are spreading…
We developed an integrated recurrent neural network and nonlinear regression spatio-temporal model for vector-borne disease evolution. We take into account climate data and seasonality as external factors that correlate with disease…
The rising proportion of Plasmodium vivax cases concentrated in forest-fringe areas across the Greater Mekong Subregion highlights the importance of pharmaceutical and mosquito control techniques specifically targeted towards forest-going…
On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
Season and their transitions play a critical role in sharpening ecosystems and human activities, yet traditional classifications, meteorological and astronomical, fail to capture the complexities of biosphere-atmosphere interactions.…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
Multivariate classification methods using explanatory and predictive models are necessary for characterizing subgroups of patients according to their risk profiles. Popular methods include logistic regression and classification trees with…
: One of the prominent challenges being faced by agricultural sciences is the onset of climate change which is adversely affecting every aspect of cropping. Modelling of climate change at macro level have been carried out at large scale and…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by vectors of genus Aedes and is a global threat with health, social, and economic impact in many of the tropical countries including Sri Lanka. The virus transmission is significantly…
The statistics of outbreaks in a model for the propagation of meningococcal diseases is analyzed, taking into account the possibility that the population is fragmented into weakly connected patches. It is shown that, depending on the size…
Livestock mobility, particularly that of small and large ruminants, is one of the main pillars of production and trade in West Africa: livestock is moved around in search of better grazing or sold in markets for domestic consumption and for…
Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…