Related papers: Mapping malaria seasonality: a case study from Mad…
Background As more regions approach malaria elimination, understanding how different interventions interact to reduce transmission becomes critical. The Lake Kariba area of Southern Province, Zambia, is part of a multi-country elimination…
We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…
Climate change significantly impacts public health, driving the emergence and spread of epidemics. Climate health models are essential for assessing and predicting disease outbreaks influenced by climatic variables like temperature and…
The spatial propagation of many livestock infectious diseases critically depends on the animal movements among premises; so the knowledge of movement data may help us to detect, manage and control an outbreak. The identification of robust…
We introduce a mathematical model of savanna vegetation dynamics. The usual approach of nonequilibrium ecology is extended by including the impact of wet and dry seasons. We present and rigorously analyze a model describing a mixed…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…
Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…
We study a mosquito-borne epidemic model where the vector population is distinct in aquatic and adult stages and a saturating effect of disease transmission is assumed to ocurr when the number of infectious (humans and mosquitoes) becomes…
In the dominant livestock systems of Sahelian countries herds have to move across territories. Their mobility is often a source of conflict with farmers in the areas crossed, and helps spread diseases such as Rift Valley Fever. Knowledge of…
Insect swarms are a model system for understanding collective behavior where the collective motion appears in disorder. To initiate and maintain a swarm in place, flying insects often use a visual external cue called a marker. In…
More than half of the world's population is exposed to the risk of mosquito-borne diseases, which leads to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths every year. Analyzing this type of data is often complex and poses several…
Traditional spatio-temporal models for areal data typically begin with spatial structure imposed at the level of random effects and later extend to include temporal dynamics. We propose an alternative hierarchical modeling framework that…
Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem today. This paper reports an investigation of the use of causal Bayesian networks to model spatio-temporal patterns of a non-contagious disease (respiratory anthrax…
We present a Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles within a population sample during its growing and equilibrium states by introducing two different vaccination schedules of one and two doses. We study the effects of the…
This article introduces estimators of trend and seasonality for time series of point processes. We assume the point processes follow a temporal or spatial doubly-stochastic Poisson model with log-Gaussian intensity functions. The proposed…
Viruses causing flu or milder coronavirus colds are often referred to as "seasonal viruses" as they tend to subside in warmer months. In other words, meteorological conditions tend to impact the activity of viruses, and this information can…
Bangladesh's worsening dengue crisis, fueled by its tropical climate, poor waste management infrastructure, rapid urbanization, and dense population, has led to increasingly deadly outbreaks, posing a significant public health threat. To…
Many physical processes involve spatio-temporal observations, which can be studied at different spatial and temporal scales. For example, rainfall data measured daily by rain gauges can be considered at daily, monthly or annual temporal…
Data from multiple prevalence surveys can provide information on common parameters of interest, which can therefore be estimated more precisely in a joint analysis than by separate analyses of the data from each survey. However, fitting a…