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Building energy modeling is a key tool for optimizing the performance of building energy systems. Historically, a wide spectrum of methods has been explored -- ranging from conventional physics-based models to purely data-driven techniques.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-24 Leandro Von Krannichfeldt , Kristina Orehounig , Olga Fink

Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-19 John W. Smith , Leah R. Johnson , Robert Q. Thomas

Exposure assessment models are deterministic models derived from physical-chemical laws. In real workplace settings, chemical concentration measurements can be noisy and indirectly measured. In addition, inference on important parameters…

Applications · Statistics 2018-07-09 Nada Abdalla , Sudipto Banerjee , Gurumurthy Ramachandran , Susan Arnold

A common approach to assess the performance of fire insulation panels is the component additive method (CAM). The parameters of the CAM are based on the temperature-dependent thermal material properties of the panels. These material…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-08 P. -R. Wagner , R. Fahrni , M. Klippel , A. Frangi , B. Sudret

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

To assess the durability of structures, heat and moisture transport need to be analyzed. To provide a reliable estimation of heat and moisture distribution in a certain structure, one needs to include all available information about the…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2013-03-19 Anna Kucerova , Jan Sykora

The rising availability of large volume data, along with increasing computing power, has enabled a wide application of statistical Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in the domains of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), Internet of Things (IoT) and…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-30 Yongchao Huang , Hugh Miles , Pengfei Zhang

Mapping people dynamics is a crucial skill for robots, because it enables them to coexist in human-inhabited environments. However, learning a model of people dynamics is a time consuming process which requires observation of large amount…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Francesco Verdoja , Tomasz Piotr Kucner , Ville Kyrki

This paper investigates a method to improve buildings' thermal predictive control performance via online identification and excitation (active learning process) that minimally disrupts normal operations. In previous studies we have…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-12-29 Peter Radecki , Brandon Hencey

This paper introduces a Bayesian inference framework for two-dimensional steady-state heat conduction, focusing on the estimation of unknown distributed heat sources in a thermally-conducting medium with uniform conductivity. The goal is to…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-07 Hanieh Mousavi , Jeff D. Eldredge

An ensuing challenge in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the perceived difficulty in interpreting sophisticated machine learning models, whose ever-increasing complexity makes it hard for such models to be understood, trusted and thus…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-25 Jianqiao Mao , Grammenos Ryan

Herein we report a multi-zone, heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) control case study of an industrial plant responsible for cooling a hospital surgery center. The adopted approach to guaranteeing thermal comfort and reducing…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-01 Emilio T. Maddalena , Silvio A. Muller , Rafael M. dos Santos , Christophe Salzmann , Colin N. Jones

Bayesian inference provides a rigorous methodology for estimation and uncertainty quantification of parameters in geophysical forward models. Badlands (basin and landscape dynamics model) is a landscape evolution model that simulates…

We present a physics-constrained control-oriented deep learning method for modeling building thermal dynamics. The proposed method is based on the systematic encoding of physics-based prior knowledge into a structured recurrent neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-13 Jan Drgona , Aaron R. Tuor , Vikas Chandan , Draguna L. Vrabie

A thorough regulation of building energy systems translates in relevant energy savings and in a better comfort for the occupants. Algorithms to predict the thermal state of a building on a certain time horizon with a good confidence are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Alfredo V Clemente , Alessandro Nocente , Massimiliano Ruocco

A massively parallel method to build large transition rate matrices from temperature accelerated molecular dynamics trajectories is presented. Bayesian Markov model analysis is used to estimate the expected residence time in the known state…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-05-30 Thomas D Swinburne , Danny Perez

Thermal comfort in indoor environments has an enormous impact on the health, well-being, and performance of occupants. Given the focus on energy efficiency and Internet-of-Things enabled smart buildings, machine learning (ML) is being…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-30 Betty Lala , Srikant Manas Kala , Anmol Rastogi , Kunal Dahiya , Hirozumi Yamaguchi , Aya Hagishima

Building energy modeling plays a vital role in optimizing the operation of building energy systems by providing accurate predictions of the building's real-world conditions. In this context, various techniques have been explored, ranging…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-24 Leandro Von Krannichfeldt , Kristina Orehounig , Olga Fink

Parameter estimation for dynamical systems remains challenging due to non-convexity and sensitivity to initial parameter guesses. Recent deep learning approaches enable accurate and fast parameter estimation but do not exploit transferable…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-08 Fabian Raisch , Timo Germann , J. Nathan Kutz , Christoph Goebel , Benjamin Tischler

This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-06 Jaakko Luttinen , Tapani Raiko , Alexander Ilin