Related papers: Estimating influenza incidence using search query …
Global mobility flow data are at the heart of spatial epidemiological models used to predict infectious disease behavior but this wealth of data on human mobility has been largely neglected by reconstructions of pathogen evolutionary…
The spread of infectious disease in a human community or the proliferation of fake news on social media can be modeled as a randomly growing tree-shaped graph. The history of the random growth process is often unobserved but contains…
Transmission rates are key in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. Using the framework of compartmental models, we introduce a simple method that enables us to reconstruct time series of transmission rates directly from…
Temporal networks, whose links are activated or deactivated over time, are used to represent complex systems such as social interactions or collaborations occurring at specific times. Such networks facilitate the spread of information and…
Knowledge of the severity of an influenza outbreak is crucial for informing and monitoring appropriate public health responses, both during and after an epidemic. However, case-fatality, case-intensive care admission and…
Google Trends reports how frequently specific queries are searched on Google over time. It is widely used in research and industry to gain early insights into public interest. However, its data generation mechanism introduces missing…
The search engine based on influenza monitoring system has been widely applied in many European and American countries. However, there are not any correlative researches reported for African developing countries. Especially, the countries…
Much traditional statistical modelling assumes that the outcome variables of interest are independent of each other when conditioned on the explanatory variables. This assumption is strongly violated in the case of infectious diseases,…
We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…
High order structures (cavities and cliques) of the gene network of influenza A virus reveal tight associations among viruses during evolution and are key signals that indicate viral cross-species infection and cause pandemics. As…
Epidemic models are increasingly used in real-world networks to understand diffusion phenomena (such as the spread of diseases, emotions, innovations, failures) or the transport of information (such as news, memes in social on-line…
The estimation from available data of parameters governing epidemics is a major challenge. In addition to usual issues (data often incomplete and noisy), epidemics of the same nature may be observed in several places or over different…
Epidemics of infectious diseases are an important threat to public health and global economies. Yet, the development of prevention strategies remains a challenging process, as epidemics are non-linear and complex processes. For this reason,…
In this work we address the issue of generic automated disease incidence monitoring on twitter. We employ an ontology of disease related concepts and use it to obtain a conceptual representation of tweets. Unlike previous key word based…
The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…
Traditional network models encapsulate travel behavior among all origin-destination pairs based on a simplified and generic utility function. Typically, the utility function consists of travel time solely and its coefficients are equated to…
Timely and accurate forecasts of seasonal influenza would assist public health decision-makers in planning intervention strategies, efficiently allocating resources, and possibly saving lives. For these reasons, influenza forecasts are…
Background: Influenza A/H3N2 has been circulating in humans since 1968, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. Although H3N2 incidence is highly seasonal, how such seasonality contributes to global phylogeographic migration dynamics…
Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of…
Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The…