Related papers: The spatial-temporal risk index and spreading dyna…
Age at infection is often an important factor in epidemic dynamics. In this paper a disease transmission model of SIS type with age dependent infection on a heterogeneous network is discussed. The model allows the infectious rate and the…
Population survival depends on a large set of factors that includes environment structure. Due to landscape heterogeneity, species can occupy particular regions that provide the ideal scenario for development, working as a refuge from…
We study a discrete Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of infectious disease on a homogeneous tree and the limit behavior of the model in the case when the tree vertex degree tends to infinity. We obtain the…
The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…
Human mobility plays a crucial role in the spread of human diseases, but is rarely quantified in plant disease epidemics. To address this gap, we integrate a unique, high-resolution network of human movements in New Zealand with a…
In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…
In this paper, we propose a Boltzmann-type kinetic model of the spreading of an infectious disease on a network. The latter describes the connections among countries, cities or districts depending on the spatial scale of interest. The…
To study the impact of climate variables on morbidity of some diseases in Mexico, we propose a spatio-temporal varying coefficients regression model. For that we introduce a new spatio-temporal dependent process prior, in a Bayesian…
Network-based epidemic models have been extensively employed to understand the spread of infectious diseases, but have generally overlooked the fact that most realistic networks are dynamical rather than static. In this paper, we study a…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
In this paper, we are concerned with an epidemic reaction-diffusion system with nonlinear incidence mechanism of the form $S^qI^p\,(p,\,q>0)$. The coefficients of the system are spatially heterogeneous and time dependent (particularly time…
One approach to understand people's efforts to reduce disease transmission, is to consider the effect of behaviour on case rates. In this paper we present a spatial infection-reducing game model of public behaviour, formally equivalent to a…
Of primary interest in this paper is the numerical approximation of a time dependent fractional, in space, diffusion equation where the domain is assumed to be nonhomogeneous, having different axial diffusion coefficients. This work is…
We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…
We extend the classical SIR model of infectious disease spread to account for time dependence in the parameters, which also include diffusivities. The temporal dependence accounts for the changing characteristics of testing, quarantine and…
A wide range of infectious diseases are both vertically and horizontally transmitted. Such diseases are spatially transmitted via multiple species in heterogeneous environments, typically described by complex meta-population models. The…
The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation…
Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…
In this paper, we propose and analyze a nonlocal cooperative reaction--diffusion system with free boundaries and drift terms, motivated by directional epidemic spread. Lacking a variational structure but requiring sharper regularity of…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…