Related papers: The spatial-temporal risk index and spreading dyna…
We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…
Spatial heterogeneity and habitat characteristic are shown to determine the asymptotic profile of the solution to a reaction-diffusion model with free boundary, which describes the moving front of the invasive species. A threshold value…
In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the…
Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling is an extremely attractive way to model the spread of crime or terrorism data over a given region, especially when the observations are counts and must be modeled discretely. The spatio-temporal…
We analyze the dynamics of a population of independent random walkers on a graph and develop a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that each walker visits independently the nodes of a finite ergodic graph in a discrete-time…
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…
The effect of diffusion rates on the basic reproduction number of a general compartmental reaction-diffusion epidemic model in a heterogeneous environment is considered. It is shown when the diffusion rates tend to zero, the limit of the…
We consider the problem of estimating the topology of spatial interactions in a discrete state, discrete time spatio-temporal graphical model where the interactions affect the temporal evolution of each agent in a network. Among other…
A class of stochastic vector-borne infectious disease models is derived and studied. The class type is determined by a general nonlinear incidence rate of the disease. The disease spreads in a highly random environment with variability from…
In this study, we investigate the dynamics of a spatial and non spatial prey-predator interaction model that includes the following: (i) fear effect incorporated in prey birth rate; (ii) group defence of prey against predators; and (iii)…
In this paper, I study epidemic diffusion in a generalized spatial SEIRD model, where individuals are initially connected in a social or geographical network. As the virus spreads in the network, the structure of interactions between people…
We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly…
We present a simple model for the spread of an infection that incorporates spatial variability in population density. Starting from first principle considerations, we explore how a novel PDE with state-dependent diffusion can be obtained.…
The flux of visitors through popular places undoubtedly influences viral spreading -- from H1N1 and Zika viruses spreading through physical spaces such as airports, to rumors and ideas spreading though online spaces such as chatrooms and…
A novel point process model continuous in space-time is proposed for quantifying the transmission dynamics of the two most common meningococcal antigenic sequence types observed in Germany 2002-2008. Modelling is based on the conditional…
With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various studies have focused on predicting the trajectory and risk factors of the virus and its variants. Building on previous work that addressed this problem using genetic and epidemiological…
The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the…
In this work, we consider the spatial-temporal multi-species competition model. A mathematical model is described by a coupled system of nonlinear diffusion-reaction equations. We use a finite volume approximation with semi-implicit time…
Interactions in time-varying complex systems are often very heterogeneous at the topological level (who interacts with whom) and at the temporal level (when interactions occur and how often). While it is known that temporal heterogeneities…