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Heart transplantation is a viable path for patients suffering from advanced heart failure, but this lifesaving option is severely limited due to donor shortage. Although the current allocation policy was recently revised in 2018, a major…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Ioannis Anagnostides , Zachary W. Sollie , Arman Kilic , Tuomas Sandholm

Each year, thousands of patients in need of heart transplants face life-threatening wait times due to organ scarcity. While allocation policies aim to maximize population-level outcomes, current approaches often fail to account for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Itai Zilberstein , Ioannis Anagnostides , Zachary W. Sollie , Arman Kilic , Tuomas Sandholm

The allocation of scarce donor organs constitutes one of the most consequential algorithmic challenges in healthcare. While the field is rapidly transitioning from rigid, rule-based systems to machine learning and data-driven optimization,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Ioannis Anagnostides , Itai Zilberstein , Zachary W. Sollie , Arman Kilic , Tuomas Sandholm

Medical institutions are considering the use of LLMs in high-stakes clinical decision-making, such as organ allocation. In such sensitive use cases, evaluating fairness is imperative. However, existing evaluation methods often fall short;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Brian Hyeongseok Kim , Hannah Murray , Isabelle Lee , Jason Byun , Joshua Lum , Dani Yogatama , Evi Micha

Kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for end-stage renal disease, yet the scarcity of donors and inefficiencies in allocation systems create major bottlenecks, resulting in prolonged wait times and alarming mortality rates.…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Sean Berry , Berk Gorgulu , Sait Tunc , Mucahit Cevik , Matthew J Ellis

We study the problem of equitably and efficiently allocating an arriving resource to multiple queues with customer abandonment. The problem is motivated by the cadaveric liver allocation system of the United States, which includes a large…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-19 Shukai Li , Sanjay Mehrotra

We propose a simulation-optimization-based methodology to improve the way that organ transplant offers are made to potential recipients. Our policy can be applied to all types of organs, is implemented starting at the local level, is…

Medical Physics · Physics 2022-12-01 Ignacio Erazo , David Goldsman , Pinar Keskinocak , Joel Sokol

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-11 Yingtao Luo , Reza Skandari , Carlos Martinez , Arman Kilic , Rema Padman

Real-world clinical decision making is a complex process that involves balancing the risks and benefits of treatments. Quality-adjusted lifetime is a composite outcome that combines patient quantity and quality of life, making it an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-09 Hao Sun , Ashkan Ertefaie , Luke Duttweiler , Brent A. Johnson

In many applications such as rationing medical care and supplies, university admissions, and the assignment of public housing, the decision of who receives an allocation can be justified by various normative criteria. Such settings have…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Siddhartha Banerjee , Matthew Eichhorn , David Kempe

We report in this paper on the potential interest of real-time queueing models to optimize organ allocation policies. We especially focus on building organ shortage resilient policies in terms of equity, as we experienced differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-27 Thomas Masanet , Benoît Audry , Christian Jacquelinet , Pascal Moyal

Given the limited pool of donor organs, accurate predictions of survival on the wait list and post transplantation are crucial for cardiac transplantation decisions and policy. However, current clinical risk scores do not yield accurate…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-13 J. Yoon , W. R. Zame , A. Banerjee , M. Cadeiras , A. M. Alaa , M. van der Schaar

Liver transplantation is a life-saving procedure for patients with end-stage liver disease. There are two main challenges in liver transplant: finding the best matching patient for a donor and ensuring transplant equity among different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Can Li , Xiaoqian Jiang , Kai Zhang

Substudies of the Childhood Asthma Management Program [Control. Clin. Trials 20 (1999) 91-120; N. Engl. J. Med. 343 (2000) 1054-1063] seek to identify patient characteristics associated with asthma symptoms and lung function. To determine…

Randomized experiments have been the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness of a treatment or policy. The classical complete randomization approach assigns treatments based on a prespecified probability and may lead to inefficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Waverly Wei , Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

A treatment regime is a deterministic function that dictates personalized treatment based on patients' individual prognostic information. There is a fast-growing interest in finding optimal treatment regimes to maximize expected long-term…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-25 Runchao Jiang , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song , Marie Davidian

The optimal allocation of vaccines to population subgroups over time is a challenging health care management problem. In the context of a pandemic, the interaction between vaccination policies adopted by multiple agents and the cooperation…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-22 David Rey , Ahmed W Hammad , Meead Saberi

Organ transplantation is often the last resort for treating end-stage illness, but the probability of a successful transplantation depends greatly on compatibility between donors and recipients. Current medical practice relies on coarse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Can Xu , Ahmed M. Alaa , Ioana Bica , Brent D. Ershoff , Maxime Cannesson , Mihaela van der Schaar

Background: Effective allocation of limited donor lungs in cystic fibrosis (CF) requires accurate survival predictions, so that high-risk patients may be prioritized for transplantation. In practice, decisions about allocation are made…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-30 Aasthaa Bansal , Nicole Mayer-Hamblett , Christopher H. Goss , Patrick J. Heagerty

Recently, a new testing approach for response-adaptive clinical trials was proposed based on the allocation probabilities (AP) rather than the outcome data. While original work on the AP test focused on binary and normal endpoints and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Stina Zetterstrom , David S. Robertson , Thomas Jaki , Sofía S. Villar
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