Related papers: The semi-Markov beta-Stacy process: a Bayesian non…
The predictive Bayesian view involves eliciting a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions in lieu of specifying a likelihood function and prior distribution. Recent methods have leveraged predictive distributions which are…
We present a short introduction into the framework of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We illustrate the abstract mathematical setting with a series of examples related to dispersal of biological systems, cell cycle models, gene…
This paper reviews recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric techniques for constructing and performing inference in infinite hidden Markov models. We focus on variants of Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models that enhance a…
We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities,…
Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…
Many applications in medical statistics as well as in other fields can be described by transitions between multiple states (e.g. from health to disease) experienced by individuals over time. In this context, multi-state models are a popular…
In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…
A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…
A new class of nonparametric prior distributions, termed Beta-Binomial stick-breaking process, is proposed. By allowing the underlying length random variables to be dependent through a Beta marginals Markov chain, an appealing discrete…
Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…
We introduce a three-parameter random walk with reinforcement, called the $(\theta,\alpha,\beta)$ scheme, which generalizes the linearly edge reinforced random walk to uncountable spaces. The parameter $\beta$ smoothly tunes the…
We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…
In this paper we extend the predicate logic introduced in [Beauquier et al. 2002] in order to deal with Semi-Markov Processes. We prove that with respect to qualitative probabilistic properties, model checking is decidable for this logic…
The non-Markovianity of the stochastic process called the quantum semi-Markov (QSM) process is studied using a recently proposed quantification of memory based on the deviation from semigroup evolution, that provides a unified description…
We present a flexible Bayesian semiparametric mixed model for longitudinal data analysis in the presence of potentially high-dimensional categorical covariates. Building on a novel hidden Markov tensor decomposition technique, our proposed…
Beta process is the standard nonparametric Bayesian prior for latent factor model. In this paper, we derive a structured mean-field variational inference algorithm for a beta process non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) model with…
We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…
In this paper, we adopt a nonparametric Bayesian approach and investigate the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution in continuous time and general state space semi-Markov processes. In particular, we obtain posterior…
This paper deals with control of partially observable discrete-time stochastic systems. It introduces and studies Markov Decision Processes with Incomplete Information and with semi-uniform Feller transition probabilities. The important…
Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…