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We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…
This article presents an approach to Bayesian semiparametric inference for Gaussian multivariate response regression. We are motivated by various small and medium dimensional problems from the physical and social sciences. The statistical…
Semi-Markov processes generalize Markov processes by adding temporal memory effects as expressed by a semi-Markov kernel. We recall the path weight for a semi-Markov trajectory and the fact that thermodynamic consistency in equilibrium…
There is a lack of methodological results for continuous time change detection due to the challenges of noninformative prior specification and efficient posterior inference in this setting. Most methodologies to date assume data are…
New algorithms for computing of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes are presented. The algorithms are based on special techniques of sequential phase space reduction, which can…
Reinforced processes are known to provide a stochastic representation for the quasi-stationary distribution of a given killed Markov process - describing the killed Markov process at fixed time instants. In this paper we shall adapt the…
We present a new method for statistical verification of quantitative properties over a partially unknown system with actions, utilising a parameterised model (in this work, a parametric Markov decision process) and data collected from…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
The expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a widespread method for empirical Bayesian inference, but its expectation step (E-step) is often intractable. Employing a stochastic approximation scheme with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
We propose a Bayesian semiparametric approach for registration of multiple point processes. Our approach entails modelling the mean measures of the phase-varying point processes with a Bernstein-Dirichlet prior, which induces a prior on the…
Stochastic convergence of discrete time Markov processes has been analysed based on a dual Lyapunov approach. Using some existing results on ergodic theory of Markov processes, it has been shown that existence of a properly subinvariant…
Bayesian methods are critical for quantifying the behaviors of systems. They capture our uncertainty about a system's behavior using probability distributions and update this understanding as new information becomes available. Probabilistic…
Gaussian process emulators of computationally expensive computer codes provide fast statistical approximations to model physical processes. The training of these surrogates depends on the set of design points chosen to run the simulator.…
We propose a new framework for imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian nonparametric setting based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations. We derive a nonparametric model of monotonic functions that allows for…
Markov processes with stochastic resetting towards the origin generically converge towards non-equilibrium steady-states. Long dynamical trajectories can be thus analyzed via the large deviations at Level 2.5 for the joint probability of…
Random walks are a fundamental model in applied mathematics and are a common example of a Markov chain. The limiting stationary distribution of the Markov chain represents the fraction of the time spent in each state during the stochastic…
New algorithms for construction of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces are presented. These algorithms are based on a special technique of sequential…
In this paper, we first use PDE techniques and probabilistic methods to identify a kind of quasi-continuous random variables. Then we give a characterization of the $G$-integrable processes and get a kind of quasi-continuous processes by…
This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…
This paper considers a semiparametric approach within the general Bayesian linear model where the innovations consist of a stationary, mean zero Gaussian time series. While a parametric prior is specified for the linear model coefficients,…