Related papers: Persistence exponents via perturbation theory: AR(…

Motivated by recent developments of quasi-stationary Monte Carlo methods, we investigate the stability of quasi-stationary distributions of killed Markov processes under perturbations of the generator. We first consider a general bounded…

Let $\xi_1,\xi_2,...$ be independent identically distributed random variables and $F:\bbR^\ell\to SL_d(\bbR)$ be a Borel measurable matrix-valued function. Set $X_n=F(\xi_{q_1(n)},\xi_{q_2(n)},...,\xi_{q_\ell(n)})$ where $0\leq…

Let $\Phi_n$ be an i.i.d. sequence of Lipschitz mappings of $\R^d$. We study the Markov chain $\{X_n^x\}_{n=0}^\infty$ on $\R^d$ defined by the recursion $X_n^x = \Phi_n(X^x_{n-1})$, $n\in\N$, $X_0^x=x\in\R^d$. We assume that…

The paper formulates the concept of persistence of excitation for discrete-time linear switched systems, and provides sufficient conditions for an input signal to be persistently exciting. Persistence of excitation is formulated as a…

In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of spreading processes taking place over time-varying networks. A common approach to model time-varying networks is via Markovian random graph processes. This modeling approach presents the following…

We prove the convergence at an exponential rate towards the invariant probability measure for a class of solutions of stochastic differential equations with finite delay. This is done, in this non-Markovian setting, using the cluster…

We investigate the probability of observing a given pattern of $n$ rises and falls in a random stationary data series. The data are modelled as a sequence of $n+1$ independent and identically distributed random numbers. This probabilistic…

We study the local persistence probability during non-stationary time evolutions in disordered contact processes with long-range interactions by a combination of the strong-disorder renormalization group (SDRG) method, a phenomenological…

This paper aims to provide a simple modelling of speculative bubbles and derive some quantitative properties of its dynamical evolution. Starting from a description of individual speculative behaviours, we build and study a second order…

The forward prediction problem for a binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process…

Let $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ be random elements of the Skorokhod space $D(\mathbb{R})$ and $\xi_1, \xi_2, \ldots$ positive random variables such that the pairs $(X_1,\xi_1), (X_2,\xi_2),\ldots$ are independent and identically distributed. The…

Let $M_n$ be an $n$ by $n$ random matrix where each entry is +1 or -1 independently with probability 1/2. Our main result implies that the probability that $M_n$ is singular is at most $(1/\sqrt{2} + o(1))^n$, improving on the previous best…

In this paper, using the method proposed by Dembo and Mukherjee [5], we obtain the persistence exponents of random Weyl polynomials in both cases: half nonnegative axis and the whole real axis. Our result is a confirmation to the…

We study a random bisection problem where an initial interval of length x is cut into two random fragments at the first stage, then each of these two fragments is cut further, etc. We compute the probability P_n(x) that at the n-th stage,…

We consider the persistence probability of a certain fractional Gaussian process $M^H$ that appears in the Mandelbrot-van Ness representation of fractional Brownian motion. This process is self-similar and smooth. We show that the…

Let $(X_n)_{n \in\mathbb{N}}$ be a $V$-geometrically ergodic Markov chain on a measurable space $\mathbb{X}$ with invariant probability distribution $\pi$. In this paper, we propose a discretization scheme providing a computable sequence…

We consider the first exit time of a nonnegative Harris-recurrent Markov process from the interval $[0,A]$ as $A\to\infty$. We provide an alternative method of proof of asymptotic exponentiality of the first exit time (suitably…

Let $X_1, X_2,\ldots, X_n$ be $n$ independent and identically distributed random variables, here $n \geq 2.$ Let $X_{(1)}, X_{(2)}, \ldots, X_{(n)}$ be the order statistics of $X_1, X_2,..., X_n.$ In this note we proved that: (I) If $X_1,…

For products $P_N$ of $N$ random matrices of size $d \times d$, there is a natural notion of finite $N$ Lyapunov exponents $\{\mu_i\}_{i=1}^d$. In the case of standard Gaussian random matrices with real, complex or real quaternion elements,…

This paper considers a simulation-based estimator for a general class of Markovian processes and explores some strong consistency properties of the estimator. The estimation problem is defined over a continuum of invariant distributions…