Related papers: Arctic amplification metrics
The focus of our work is improving the interpretability of anomalies in climate models and advancing our understanding of Arctic melt dynamics. The Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are experiencing rapid surface melting and increased…
This study investigates the variability of the Central England Temperature (CET) series in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) using advanced time series modeling techniques. Leveraging…
In this paper, we present a semiparametric model for describing the effect of temperature on Antarctic ice accumulation on a paleoclimatic time scale. The model is motivated by sharp ups and downs in the rate of ice accumulation apparent…
Climate change is a massive multidimensional shift. Temperature shifts, in particular, have important implications for urbanization, agriculture, health, productivity, and poverty, among other things. While much research has documented…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…
We introduce an anomaly detection method for multivariate time series data with the aim of identifying critical periods and features influencing extreme climate events like snowmelt in the Arctic. This method leverages the Variational…
The coupled Arctic system is in rapid transition and is set to undergo further dramatic changes over the coming decades. These changes will lead most likely to an ice-free ocean in summer, expected before mid-century. The Arctic will become…
The Earth has warmed in the last century with the most rapid warming occurring near the surface in the arctic. This enhanced surface warming in the Arctic is partly because the extra heat is trapped in a thin layer of air near the surface…
We analyze the ERA5 reanalysis 2-meter temperature time series on all land grid points using change point analysis. We fit two linear slopes to the data with the constraint that they merge at the point in time where the slope changes. We…
Using data from the Longyearbyen weather station, quantile gradient boosting ("small AI") is applied to forecast daily temperatures in Svalbard, Norway. Temperatures above 0 degrees Celsius are of special interest because of their impact on…
Weather and climate extremes such as heatwaves are crucial climate hazards to people and ecosystems worldwide. In any region, climate change may alter their characteristics in complex ways so that rigorous and holistic quantification of the…
We present here formal evidence of a strong linkage between temperature and East Antarctic ice accumulation over the past eight hundred kiloyears, after accounting for thinning. The conclusions are based on statistical analysis of a…
Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) describes variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature with a typical cycle of between 60 and 70 years. AMV strongly impacts local climate over North America and Europe, therefore prediction…
We analyze the numerical solutions of a stochastic Arctic sea ice model with constant additive noise over a wide range of external heat-fluxes, $\Delta F_0$, which correspond to greenhouse gas forcing. The variability that the stochasticity…
In this study we compare the representation of the southern hemisphere midlatitude winter variability in the NCEP-NCAR and ERA40 reanalyses. We use the classical Hayashi spectral technique, recently applied to compare the description of the…
The persistent lack of spatially complete Antarctic sea ice thickness (SIT) data at sub-monthly resolution has fundamentally constrained the quantitative understanding of large-scale sea ice mass balance processes. In this study, a…
Understanding and forecasting precipitation events in the Arctic maritime environments, such as Bear Island and Ny-{\AA}lesund, is crucial for assessing climate risk and developing early warning systems in vulnerable marine regions. This…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
The complex network framework has been successfully applied to the analysis of climatological data, providing, for example, a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying reduced predictability during El Ni\~no or La Ni\~na years.…