Related papers: Arctic amplification metrics
Statistical methods are required to evaluate and quantify the uncertainty in environmental processes, such as land and sea surface temperature, in a changing climate. Typically, annual harmonics are used to characterize the variation in the…
We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR…
We analyze the occurrence and the values of record-breaking temperatures in daily and monthly temperature observations. Our aim is to better understand and quantify the statistics of temperature records in the context of global warming.…
The rise in global mean temperature is an incomplete description of warming. For many purposes, including agriculture and human life, temperature extremes may be more important than temperature means and changes in local extremes may be…
This paper explores the use of Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to investigate patterns in zonal-mean zonal winds of the Arctic, which make up the polar vortex, in order to better explain polar vortex dynamics. We demonstrate how TDA reveals…
It has been proposed that galactic cosmic rays may influence the Earth's climate by affecting cloud formation. If changes in cloudiness play a part in climate change, their effect changes sign in Antarctica. Satellite data from the Earth…
In a recent paper attempts were made to quantify the respective solar and anthropogenic influences on the terrestrial climate, and to cautiously predict the global mean temperature over the next 130 years. In a double regression analysis,…
This paper presents a global air and sea temperature anomalies analysis based upon a combination of the wavelet multiresolution analysis and the scaling analysis methods of a time series. The wavelet multiresolution analysis decomposes the…
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…
We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev.…
The internal antarctic plateau revealed in the last years to be a site with interesting potentialities for the astronomical applications due to the extreme dryness and low temperatures, the typical high altitude of the plateau, the weak…
We characterise the long-term variability of European near-surface wind speeds using 142 years of data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and consider the potential of such long-baseline climate data sets for wind energy…
Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo -- a key parameter in climate…
Temperature uncertainty models for land and sea surfaces can be developed based on statistical methods. In this paper, we developed a novel time series temperature uncertainty model which is the Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARMA)(1, 1)…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
Daily temperature anomaly records are analyzed (61 for Australia, 18 for Hungary) by means of detrended fluctuation analysis. Positive long range asymptotic correlations extending up to 5-10 years are detected for each case. Contrary to…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
This paper presents the first estimate of the seasonal cycle of ocean and sea ice net heat and freshwater (FW) fluxes around the boundary of the Arctic Ocean. The ocean transports are estimated primarily using 138 moored instruments…
We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate a nonparametric statistic that describes the rate at which all-time daily high and low temperature records have been set in nine geographic regions (continents or…