Related papers: The human longevity record may hold for decades
In many cohorts (such as the UK Biobank) on which Mendelian Randomization studies are routinely performed, data on participants' longevity is inadequate as the majority of participants are still living. To nevertheless estimate effects on…
Ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) is a method that simultaneously reconstructs a phylogenetic tree and ancestral sequences from extant data (sequences at the leaves). The tree and ancestral sequences maximize the probability of observing…
We study supercritical age-structured branching models starting from a single particle with a random lifetime, where the reproduction law depends on the remaining lifetime of the parent. The lifespan of an individual is decided at its birth…
If only human beings would breathe the entire quantity of terrestrial air, then, at the present-day population on the Earth, one million years would exhaust that air. It seems we have enough air. Is it so?
The Anthropocene is a proposed time subdivision of the earth's history correlated to the strong human perturbation of the ecosystem. Much debate is ongoing about what date should be considered as the start of the Anthropocene, but much less…
The anthropic principle implies that life can emerge and be sustained only in a narrow range of values of fundamental constants. Here we show that anthropic arguments can set powerful constraints on {\em transient} variations of the…
Background: Accurate survival time estimates aid end-of-life medical decision-making. Objectives: Develop an interpretable survival model for elderly residential aged care residents using advanced machine learning. Setting: A major…
We wish to verify that the mortality deceleration (or decrease) is a consequence of the bending of the shape parameter at old ages. This investigation is based upon the Weon model (the Weibull model with an age-dependent shape parameter)…
We consider a stochastic model for an evolving population. We show that in the presence of genotype extinctions the population dies out for a low mutation probability but may survive for a high mutation probability. This turns upside down…
Suppose the lifetime of a large sample of batteries in routine use is measured. A confidence interval is computed to 394 plus/minus 1.96 times 4.6 days. The standard interpretation is that if we repeatedly draw samples and compute…
The observation that we are among the first 10^{11} or so humans reduces the prior probability that we find ourselves in a species whose total lifetime number of individuals is much higher, according to arguments of Carter, Leslie, Nielsen,…
The age of the Universe depends on both the present-day Hubble Constant and on the history of cosmic expansion. For decelerating cosmologies such as Omega_m= 1, the dimensionless product H_0,t_0<1 and modestly high values of the Hubble…
If properly interpreted, the impact record of the Moon, Earth's nearest neighbour, can be used to gain insights into how the Earth has been influenced by impacting events since its formation ~4.5 billion years (Ga) ago. However, the nature…
Biostasis has the potential to extend human lives by offering a bridge to powerful life extension technologies that may be developed in the future. However, key questions in the field remain unresolved, including which biomarkers reliably…
A Total Solar Eclipse (TSE) is a shocking and sublime experience. In just a week hundreds of millions of Homo Sapiens will attempt to see the 2024 eclipse as it stretches across the North American continent. However, while Homo Sapiens may…
We investigate a model of cell division in which the length of telomeres within the cell regulate their proliferative potential. At each cell division the ends of linear chromosomes change and a cell becomes senescent when one or more of…
The Gompertz model since 1825 has significantly contributed to interpretation of ageing in biological and social sciences. However, in modern research findings, it is clear that the Gompertz model is not successful to describe the whole…
Consider a homogeneous time-continuous branching process where individuals have constant birth rate $\delta$, and life length distribution $Q$ having mean $E(Q)=1$. Let $X(u)$ denote the number of individuals alive at time $u$, and assume…
Accurate estimation of cancer mortality rates and the comparison across cancer sites, populations or time periods is crucial to public health, as identification of vulnerable groups who suffer the most from these diseases may lead to…
The temperatures in large parts of Europe have been record high during the meteorological autumn of 2006. Compared to 1961-1990, the 2m temperature was more than three degrees Celsius above normal from the North side of the Alps to southern…