Related papers: The human longevity record may hold for decades
Consider a population evolving from year to year through three seasons: spring, summer and winter. Every spring starts with $N$ dormant individuals waking up independently of each other according to a given distribution. Once an individual…
Numerous Earth-destroying doomsday scenarios have recently been analyzed, including breakdown of a metastable vacuum state and planetary destruction triggered by a "strangelet'' or microscopic black hole. We point out that many previous…
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis,…
Prediction of the remaining life of high-voltage power transformers is an important issue for energy companies because of the need for planning maintenance and capital expenditures. Lifetime data for such transformers are complicated…
A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…
Growth of the world population and the world economic growth were hyperbolic in the past 2,000,000 years. Recently, from around 1950, they started to be diverted to slower trajectories but they are still close to the historical hyperbolic…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
... By additionally considering a two-mutation model for carcinogenesis and indefinite proliferation by the activation of telomerase, we demonstrate that the risk of dying doe to cancer can outweigh the positive effect of longer telomeres…
The "characteristic age" of a pulsar usually is considered to approximate its true age, but this assumption has led to some puzzling results, including the fact that many pulsars with small characteristic ages have no associated supernova…
Advances in healthcare and in the quality of life significantly increase human life expectancy. With the ageing of populations, new un-faced challenges are brought to science. The human body is naturally selected to be well-functioning…
Contrary to common belief, both the Earth's human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential, i.e., in a super-Malthusian mode, for most of the known history. These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous…
The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality has become a major public health problem worldwide, especially among older adults living in low- to middle-income countries. This study aimed to investigate the effects of heat waves and…
The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to…
One possible explanation for the substantial organismal differences between humans and chimpanzees is that there have been changes in gene regulation. Given what is known about transcription factor binding sites, this motivates the…
Take a continuous-time Galton-Watson tree. If the system survives until a large time $T$, then choose $k$ particles uniformly from those alive. What does the ancestral tree drawn out by these $k$ particles look like? Some special cases are…
We propose a method of estimating the Total Loss of Healthy Life Years based on the first exit time theory for a stochastic process, the resulting Health State Function and the Deterioration Function estimated as the curvature of the health…
In everyday life, the process of commuting to work from home happens every now and then. And the research of commute characteristics is useful for urban function planning. For humans, the commute of an individual seems revealing no regular…
Following our previous works on the health state of a population and the related health state function we proceed in developing a method to estimate the Healthy Life Expectancy in connection to the relative impact of the Mortality Area in…
We discuss the Carter's formula about the mankind evolution probability following the derivation proposed by Barrow and Tipler. We stress the relation between the existence of billions of galaxies and the evolution of at least one…
We revisit the determination of the age of the Universe from galactic globular clusters, extending previous analyses by explicitly accounting for the presence of multiple stellar populations within each cluster. Using high--quality…