English

Too Soon for Doom Gloom?

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology 2012-12-24 v2

Abstract

The observation that we are among the first 10^{11} or so humans reduces the prior probability that we find ourselves in a species whose total lifetime number of individuals is much higher, according to arguments of Carter, Leslie, Nielsen, and Gott. However, if we instead start with a prior probability that a history has a total lifetime number which is very large, without assuming that we are in such a history, this more basic probability is not reduced by the observation of how early in history we exist.

Cite

@article{arxiv.gr-qc/9407002,
  title  = {Too Soon for Doom Gloom?},
  author = {Tomas Kopf and Pavel Krtous and Don N. Page},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:gr-qc/9407002},
  year   = {2012}
}

Comments

12 pages, LaTeX, Alberta-Thy-17-94