Related papers: Victory Probability in the Fire Emblem Arena
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become…
The purpose of this tutorial is to help individuals use the \underline{FireCommander} game environment for research applications. The FireCommander is an interactive, probabilistic joint perception-action reconnaissance environment in which…
{\it Victory}, i.e. \underline{vi}enna \underline{c}omputational \underline{to}ol deposito\underline{ry}, is a collection of numerical tools for solving the parquet equations for the Hubbard model and similar many body problems. The parquet…
We consider Reinforced Random Walks where transition probabilities are a function of the proportion of times the walk has traversed an edge. We give conditions for recurrence or transience. A phase transition is observed, similar to…
We consider the problem of selecting a portfolio of entries of fixed cardinality for contests with top-heavy payoff structures, i.e. most of the winnings go to the top-ranked entries. This framework is general and can be used to model a…
The multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) games have become increasingly popular in recent years. Consequently, many efforts have been devoted to providing pre-game or in-game predictions for them. However, these works are limited in the…
Enemy strategies in turn-based games should be surprising and unpredictable. This study introduces Mirror Mode, a new game mode where the enemy AI mimics the personal strategy of a player to challenge them to keep changing their gameplay. A…
The game of 2048 is a highly addictive game. It is easy to learn the game, but hard to master as the created game revealed that only about 1% games out of hundreds million ever played have been won. In this paper, we would like to explore…
We investigate the problem of computing the probability of winning in an election where voter attendance is uncertain. More precisely, we study the setting where, in addition to a total ordering of the candidates, each voter is associated…
We present tournament results and several powerful strategies for the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma created using reinforcement learning techniques (evolutionary and particle swarm algorithms). These strategies are trained to perform well…
We propose a new approach to solve the classical Monty Hall problem in its general form. The solution is based on basic tools of probability theory, by defining three elementary events which decompose the sample space into a partition. The…
We prove the explicit formula for the probability of a run of r successes in n trials.
The margin of victory of an election is a useful measure to capture the robustness of an election outcome. It also plays a crucial role in determining the sample size of various algorithms in post election audit, polling etc. In this work,…
We study the probability that the product of two randomly chosen elements in a finite ring $R$ is equal to some fixed element $x \in R$. We calculate this probability for semisimple rings and some special classes of local rings, and find…
The evaluation of the probability of union of a large number of independent events requires several combinations involving the factorial and the use of high performance computers with several hours of processing. Bounds and simplifications…
Optimal probabilistic approach in reinforcement learning is computationally infeasible. Its simplification consisting in neglecting difference between true environment and its model estimated using limited number of observations causes…
In recent years, there has been an increased need for the use of active systems - systems required to act automatically based on events, or changes in the environment. Such systems span many areas, from active databases to applications that…
Esports has emerged as a popular genre for players as well as spectators, supporting a global entertainment industry. Esports analytics has evolved to address the requirement for data-driven feedback, and is focused on cyber-athlete…
Symbolic event recognition systems have been successfully applied to a variety of application domains, extracting useful information in the form of events, allowing experts or other systems to monitor and respond when significant events are…
Researchers are increasingly focusing on intelligent games as a hot research area.The article proposes an algorithm that combines the multi-attribute management and reinforcement learning methods, and that combined their effect on…