Related papers: Victory Probability in the Fire Emblem Arena
Fire Emblem (FE) is a popular turn-based tactical role-playing game (TRPG) series on the Nintendo gaming consoles. This paper studies the computational complexity of a simplified version of FE (only floor tiles and wall tiles, the HP and…
In Major League Baseball, strategy and planning are major factors in determining the outcome of a game. Previous studies have aided this by building machine learning models for predicting the winning team of any given game. We extend this…
An evolutionary approach for computing the winning strategy for Nim-like games is proposed in this paper. The winning strategy is computed by using the Multi Expression Programming (MEP) technique - a fast and efficient variant of the…
The authors propose a parametric model called the arena model for prediction in paired competitions, i.e. paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The arena model has a number of appealing advantages. First, it predicts the…
In the run-up to any major sports tournament, winning probabilities of participants are publicized for engagement and betting purposes. These are generally based on simulating the tournament tens of thousands of times by sampling from…
The paper considers urn schemes in which several urns can be involved. Simplified formulas are proposed that allow direct calculation of probabilities without the use of elements combinatorics.
In this paper, we propose a confidence-calibration method for predicting the winner of a famous multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) game, League of Legends. In MOBA games, the dataset may contain a large amount of input-dependent noise;…
We prove an asymptotic Lipschitz estimate for value functions of tug-of-war games with varying probabilities defined in $\Omega\subset \mathbb R^n$. The method of the proof is based on a game-theoretic idea to estimate the value of a…
Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread…
Many poker systems, whether created with heuristics or machine learning, rely on the probability of winning as a key input. However calculating the precise probability using combinatorics is an intractable problem, so instead we approximate…
We revisit the game in which each of several players chooses a pattern and then a coin is flipped repeatedly until one of these patterns is generated. In particular, we demonstrate how to compute the probability of any one player winning…
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…
This paper presents a study on the prediction of outcomes in matches of the electronic game League of Legends (LoL) using machine learning techniques. With the aim of exploring the ability to predict real-time results, considering different…
We derive an explicit formula for the probability of ruin of a gambler playing against an infinitely-rich adversary, when the games have payoff given by a general integer-valued probability distribution.
Solving parity games is a major building block for numerous applications in reactive program verification and synthesis. While they can be solved efficiently in practice, no known approach has a polynomial worst-case runtime complexity. We…
We consider the problem of computing the probability of regular languages of infinite trees with respect to the natural coin-flipping measure. We propose an algorithm which computes the probability of languages recognizable by \emph{game…
We show how solutions to many recursive arena equations can be computed in a natural way by allowing loops in arenas. We then equip arenas with winning functions and total winning strategies. We present two natural winning conditions…
Two-player win/lose games of infinite duration are involved in several disciplines including computer science and logic. If such a game has deterministic winning strategies, one may ask how simple such strategies can get. The answer may…
Energy parity games are infinite two-player turn-based games played on weighted graphs. The objective of the game combines a (qualitative) parity condition with the (quantitative) requirement that the sum of the weights (i.e., the level of…
The margin of victory is easy to compute for many election schemes but difficult for Instant Runoff Voting (IRV). This is important because arguments about the correctness of an election outcome usually rely on the size of the electoral…