Related papers: Predicting a solar cycle before its onset using a …
The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide…
The problem of prediction of a given time series is examined on the basis of recent nonlinear dynamics theories. Particular attention is devoted to forecast the amplitude and phase of one of the most common solar indicator activity, the…
The solar cycle is generated by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism which involves the induction and recycling of the toroidal and poloidal components of the Sun's magnetic field. Recent observations indicate that the Babcock-Leighton…
The polar magnetic field precursor is considered to be the most robust and physics-based method for the prediction of the next solar cycle strength. However, to make a reliable prediction of a cycle, is the polar field at the solar minimum…
Babcock-Leighton process, in which the poloidal field is generated through the decay and dispersal of tilted bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs), is observed to be the major process behind the generating poloidal field in the Sun. Based on this…
We propose that the poloidal field at the end of the last sunspot cycle before the Maunder minimum fell to a very low value due to fluctuations in the Babcock--Leighton process. With this assumption, a flux transport dynamo model is able to…
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…
One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic…
The solar activity cycle is successfully modeled by the flux transport dynamo, in which the meridional circulation of the Sun plays an important role. Most of the kinematic dynamo simulations assume a one-cell structure of the meridional…
After emerging to the solar surface, the Sun's magnetic field displays a complex and intricate evolution. The evolution of the surface field is important for several reasons. One is that the surface field, and its dynamics, sets the…
It is well accepted that the solar cycle originates from a magnetohydrodynamics dynamo deep inside the Sun. Many dynamo models have long been proposed based on a lot of observational constraints. In this paper, using 342 NSO/Kitt Peak solar…
Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus.…
The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…
The meridional circulation of the Sun is observationally found to vary with the solar cycle, becoming slower during the solar maxima. We explain this by constructing a theoretical model in which the equation of the meridional circulation…
The butterfly diagram of the solar cycle exhibits a poleward migration of the diffuse magnetic field resulting from the decay of trailing sunspots. It is one component of what is sometimes referred to as the "rush to the poles". We…
In contrast to the situation with the geodynamo, no breakthrough has been made in the solar dynamo problem for decades. Since the appearance of mean-field electrodynamics in the 1960's, the only really significant advance was in the field…
Recent findings of helioseismology as well as advances in direct numerical simulations of global dynamics of the Sun have indicated that in each solar hemisphere the meridional circulation forms the two cells along the in the convection…
Meridional circulation is an important ingredient in flux transport dynamo models. We have studied its importance on the period, the amplitude of the solar cycle, and also in producing Maunder-like grand minima in these models. First, we…
Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…
We confirm that the evidence for the Waldmeier effect WE1 (the anti-correlation between rise times of sunspot cycles and their strengths) and the related effect WE2 (the correlation between rise rates of cycles and their strengths) is found…