Related papers: Predicting a solar cycle before its onset using a …
The operation of the solar dynamo, with all of its remarkable spatio-temporal ordering, remains an outstanding problem of modern solar physics. A number of mechanisms that might plausibly contribute to its operation have been proposed, but…
We present in this work the development of a solar data assimilation method based on an axisymmetric mean field dynamo model and magnetic surface data, our mid-term goal is to predict the solar quasi cyclic activity. Here we focus on the…
The Sun, aside from its eleven year sunspot cycle is additionally subject to long term variation in its activity. In this work we analyse a solar-like convective dynamo simulation, containing approximately 60 magnetic cycles, exhibiting…
The butterfly diagram of the solar cycle is the equatorward migration of the emergence latitudes of sunspots as the solar cycle evolves. Revealing the mechanism for the butterfly diagram is essential for understanding the solar and stellar…
We model the surface magnetic field and open flux of the Sun from 1913 to 1986 using a surface flux transport model, which includes the observed cycle-to-cycle variation of sunspot group tilts. The model reproduces the empirically derived…
Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies…
Over the past century, the Sun's activity -- which exhibits significant variations -- went through a phase known as the Modern Maximum. Notably, the strongest sunspot cycle on record during this period, and indeed since direct sunspot…
In this paper we complete the presentation of a new hybrid $2\times2$D flux transport dynamo (FTD) model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism of poloidal magnetic field regeneration via the surface decay of bipolar…
We compare two candidate nonlinearities for regulating the solar cycle within the Babcock-Leighton paradigm: tilt quenching (whereby the tilt of active regions is reduced in stronger cycles) and latitude quenching (whereby flux emerges at…
It can be shown on observational grounds that two basic effects of dynamo theory for solar activity - production of the toroidal field from the poloidal one by differential rotation and reverse conversion of the toroidal field to the…
The Sun occasionally goes through Maunder-like extended grand minima when its magnetic activity drops considerably from the normal activity level for several decades. Many possible theories have been proposed to explain the origin of these…
We present results from a three-dimensional Babcock--Leighton dynamo model that is sustained by the explicit emergence and dispersal of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). On average, each BMR has a systematic tilt given by Joy's law.…
I summarize in four slides the 40 years of development of the standard solar model that is used to predict solar neutrino fluxes and then describe the current uncertainties in the predictions. I next dispel the misconception that the p-p…
Some selected concepts for the solar activity cycle are briefly reviewed. Cycle modulations through a stochastic alpha effect are being identified with limited scale separation ratios. Three-dimensional turbulence simulations with helicity…
Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Surface flux transport models can be…
The Babcock-Leighton type of dynamo has received recent support in terms of the discovery in the observational records of systematic cycle-to-cycle variations in the tilt angle of sunspot groups. It has been proposed that these variations…
The main objective of this paper is to introduce the STABLE (Surface flux Transport And Babcock-LEighton) solar dynamo model. STABLE is a 3D Babcock-Leighton/Flux Transport dynamo model in which the source of poloidal field is the explicit…
Polar fields in solar cycle 23 were about 50% weaker than those in cycle 22. The only theoretical models which have addressed this puzzle are surface transport models and flux-transport dynamo models. Comparing polar fields obtained from…
Aims. We aim to infer the sub-surface distribution of the Sun's non-axisymmetric azimuthal magnetic flux from observable quantities, such as the surface magnetic field and the large scale plasma flows. Methods. We have built a kinematic…
The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that…