Related papers: Monte Carlo Methods for Insurance Risk Computation
We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…
The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…
Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…
We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…
We present a new Monte Carlo methodology for the accurate estimation of the distribution of the sum of dependent log-normal random variables. The methodology delivers statistically unbiased estimators for three distributional quantities of…
In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…
We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…
We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some…
Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…
Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…
Classical Monte Carlo methods for pricing catastrophe insurance tail risk converge at order reciprocal root N, requiring large simulation budgets to resolve upper-tail percentiles of the loss distribution. This sample-sparsity problem can…
Some new survival distributions are introduced based on a generalised exponential function. This class of distributions includes heavy-tailed generalisations of exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions. Properties of the distributions…
In this paper we develop a novel inferential approach based on geometric records for estimating the tail index of heavy-tailed distributions. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator for the Pareto model and establish its strong…
In this paper, we obtain some results on precise large deviations for non-random and random sums of widely dependent random variables with common dominatedly varying tail distribution or consistently varying tail distribution on…
Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…
In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The assessment of risks should be carried out in accordance with the regulatory authority's requirement at high quantiles. In general, the underlying distribution function is…
For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…
In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…
We provide a new extension of Breiman's Theorem on computing tail probabilities of a product of random variables to a multivariate setting. In particular, we give a complete characterization of regular variation on cones in $[0,\infty)^d$…