Related papers: Monte Carlo Methods for Insurance Risk Computation
Capital allocation is a procedure used to assess the risk contributions of individual risk components to the total risk of a portfolio. While the conditional tail expectation (CTE)-based capital allocation is arguably the most popular…
We offer a new perspective on risk aggregation with FGM copulas. Along the way, we discover new results and revisit existing ones, providing simpler formulas than one can find in the existing literature. This paper builds on two novel…
We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…
We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…
For purposes of Value-at-Risk estimation, we consider several multivariate families of heavy-tailed distributions, which can be seen as multidimensional versions of Paretian stable and Student's t distributions allowing different marginals…
Let $(X_n)_{n\in \mathbb Z}$ be a GARCH process with $E(X_0^4)<\infty$, and let $\mu_n$ denote the distribution of $\frac 1{{\sqrt n}}\sum_{i=1}^n [X_i^2-\mathbb E(X_0^2)]$. We derive a numerical approximation of $\mu_n$ when $x_1,...,x_n$…
Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…
Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…
This paper introduces the multivariate tail-inflated normal (MTIN) distribution, an elliptical heavy-tails generalization of the multivariate normal (MN). The MTIN belongs to the family of MN scale mixtures by choosing a convenient…
In this paper, we present a new framework to obtain tail inequalities for sums of random matrices. Compared with existing works, our tail inequalities have the following characteristics: 1) high feasibility--they can be used to study the…
We generalize a famous tail Doob's inequality, relative two non-negative random variables, arising in the martingale theory, in two directions: on the more general source data and on the random variables belonging to the so-called Grand…
We consider the problem of estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio, where the future loss is expressed as a conditional expectation. Since the conditional expectation is intractable in most cases, one may…
We develop the idea of using Monte Carlo sampling of random portfolios to solve portfolio investment problems. In this first paper we explore the need for more general optimization tools, and consider the means by which constrained random…
Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…
The distribution of the sum of dependent risks is a crucial aspect in actuarial sciences, risk management and in many branches of applied probability. In this paper, we obtain analytic expressions for the probability density function (pdf)…
In this paper we present various new inequalities for tail proabilities for distributions that are elements of the most improtant exponential families. These families include the Poisson distributions, the Gamma distributions, the binomial…
We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to the Value at Risk assuming a heavy tail distribution of the stock prices…
In this paper, a novel approach to the problem of estimating the heavy-tail exponent alpha>0 of a distribution is proposed. It is based on the fact that block-maxima of size m of the independent and identically distributed data scale at a…
Heavy-tailed phenomena appear across diverse domains --from wealth and firm sizes in economics to network traffic, biological systems, and physical processes-- characterized by the disproportionate influence of extreme values. These…
We propose a new testing procedure about the tail weight parameter of multivariate Student $t$ distributions by having recourse to the Le Cam methodology. Our test is asymptotically as efficient as the classical likelihood ratio test, but…