Related papers: The ARMA Point Process and its Estimation
We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process…
This paper focuses on recursive estimation of time varying autoregressive processes in a nonparametric setting. The stability of the model is revisited and uniform results are provided when the time-varying autoregressive parameters belong…
Tacho-less rotational speed estimation is critical for vibration-based prognostics and health management (PHM) of rotating machinery, yet traditional methods--such as time-domain periodicity, cepstrum, and harmonic comb matching--struggle…
Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…
Autoregressive models (ARMs) currently hold state-of-the-art performance in likelihood-based modeling of image and audio data. Generally, neural network based ARMs are designed to allow fast inference, but sampling from these models is…
We develop a new efficient algorithm for the analysis of large-scale time series data. We firstly define rolling averages, derive their analytical properties, and establish their asymptotic distribution. These theoretical results are…
We consider the problem of change-points estimation in the mean of an AR(p) process. Taking into account the dependence structure does not allow us to use the approach of the independent case. Especially, the dynamic programming algorithm…
We develop an anomaly-detection method when systematic anomalies, possibly statistically very similar to genuine inputs, are affecting control systems at the input and/or output stages. The method allows anomaly-free inputs (i.e., those…
Over the past few decades, the Hawkes process has become a popular framework for modeling temporal events thanks to its flexibility to capture different dependency structures. The objective of this work is to model call sequences emitted by…
Averaging, or smoothing, is a fundamental approach to obtain stable, de-noised estimates from noisy observations. In certain scenarios, observations made along trajectories of random dynamical systems are of particular interest. One popular…
Compositional time series frequently exhibit structural breaks due to external shocks, policy changes, or market disruptions. Standard methods either ignore such breaks or handle them through fixed effects that cannot extrapolate beyond the…
The paper addresses the problem to estimate the power spectral density of an ARMA zero mean Gaussian process. We propose a kernel based maximum entropy spectral estimator. The latter searches the optimal spectrum over a class of high order…
Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a…
We consider the parametric estimation of the driving L\'evy process of a multivariate continuous-time autoregressive moving average (MCARMA) process, which is observed on the discrete time grid $(0,h,2h,...)$. Beginning with a new state…
Remote Memory Access (RMA) is an emerging mechanism for programming high-performance computers and datacenters. However, little work exists on resilience schemes for RMA-based applications and systems. In this paper we analyze fault…
We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the…
Hawkes (1971) introduced a powerful multivariate point process model of mutually exciting processes to explain causal structure in data. In this paper it is shown that the Granger causality structure of such processes is fully encoded in…
The controlled branching process is a generalization of the classical Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson branching process. It is a useful model for describing the evolution of populations in which the population size at each generation needs to be…
Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…
We give the cumulative distribution function of $M_n$, the maximum of a sequence of $n$ observations from an ARMA(1, 1) process. Solutions are first given in terms of repeated integrals and then for the case, where the underlying random…