Related papers: The ARMA Point Process and its Estimation
Nonstationarity of real-life time series requires model adaptation. In classical approaches like ARMA-ARCH there is assumed some arbitrarily chosen dependence type. To avoid their bias, we will focus on novel more agnostic approach: moving…
We adopt the interpretability offered by a parametric, Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function for the marks and apply variational inference techniques to derive a general and scalable inferential framework for marked…
A special type of immigration associated with measure-valued branching processes is formulated by using skew convolution semigroups. We give characterization for a general inhomogeneous skew convolution semigroup in terms of probability…
The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…
Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…
In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…
The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…
Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that have the ability to model the self- and mutual-exciting phenomena. Although the classic Hawkes processes cover a wide range of applications, their expressive ability is limited due to…
We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…
Classic estimation methods for Hawkes processes rely on the assumption that observed event times are indeed a realisation of a Hawkes process, without considering any potential perturbation of the model. However, in practice, observations…
Multireference alignment (MRA) refers to the problem of recovering a signal from noisy samples subject to random circular shifts. Expectation--maximization (EM) and variational approaches use statistical modeling to achieve high accuracy at…
In this paper we introduce a new model named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes process as the Hawkes model with exponential kernel implies a strictly decreasing behaviour of the autocorrelation function and empirically evidences reject the monotonicity…
Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the…
The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is one of the most important models in time series analysis.We consider the Bayesian estimation of an unknown spectral density in the ARMA model.In the i.i.d. cases, Komaki showed that Bayesian…
Vocal tract resonance characteristics in acoustic speech signals are classically tracked using frame-by-frame point estimates of formant frequencies followed by candidate selection and smoothing using dynamic programming methods that…
Regularization method and Bayesian inverse method are two dominating ways for solving inverse problems generated from various fields, e.g., seismic exploration and medical imaging. The two methods are related with each other by the MAP…
This study introduces an iterative Bayesian Robbins--Monro (IBRM) sequence, which unites the classical Robbins--Monro sequence with statistical estimation for faster root-finding under noisy observations. Although the standard…
Properties of arrival times are studied for a Cox process with independent (and stationary) increments. Under a reasonable setting the directing random measure is shown to take over independent (and stationary) increments of the process,…
In this paper, the parameter estimation of ARMA(p,q) model is given by approximate Bayesian computation algorithm. In order to improve the sampling efficiency of the algorithm, approximate Bayesian computation should select as many…
We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…