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Related papers: The ARMA Point Process and its Estimation

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The increasing complexity of supply chains and the rising costs associated with defective or substandard goods (bad goods) highlight the urgent need for advanced predictive methodologies to mitigate risks and enhance operational efficiency.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Bishwajit Prasad Gond

Time series of counts occurring in various applications are often overdispersed, meaning their variance is much larger than the mean. This paper proposes a novel variable selection approach for processing such data. Our approach consists in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 Marina Gomtsyan

Many extensions and modifications have been made to standard process monitoring methods such as the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart. In addition, new schemes have been proposed based…

Hawkes processes are point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties that are popular in applications. In recent years, renewal Hawkes processes have gained attention, due to their versatility such as the capability of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Lirong Cui , Yongji Zhang , Lingjiong Zhu

We propose a bound-preserving (BP) Point-Average-Moment PolynomiAl-interpreted (PAMPA) scheme by blending third-order and first-order constructions. The originality of the present construction is that it does not need any explicit…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Rémi Abgrall , Miaosen Jiao , Yongle Liu , Kailiang Wu

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin

The paper studies a class of critical Markov branching processes with infinite variance of the offspring distribution. The processes admit also an immigration component at the jump-points of a non-homogeneous Poisson process, assuming that…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-08 Kosto V. Mitov , Nikolay M. Yanev

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Ahmer Raza , Hudson Smith

Autoregressive and moving-average (ARMA) models with stable Paretian errors is one of the most studied models for time series with infinite variance. Estimation methods for these models have been studied by many researchers but the problem…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-07 Jen-Wen Lin , A. Ian McLeod

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

We propose a method for conducting algebraic program analysis (APA) incrementally in response to changes of the program under analysis. APA is a program analysis paradigm that consists of two distinct steps: computing a path expression that…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Chenyu Zhou , Yuzhou Fang , Jingbo Wang , Chao Wang

In this paper we propose a recursive online algorithm for estimating the parameters of a time-varying ARCH process. The estimation is done by updating the estimator at time point $t-1$ with observations about the time point $t$ to yield an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Rainer Dahlhaus , Suhasini Subba Rao

We present an outline of the theory of certain L\'evy-driven, multivariate stochastic processes, where the processes are represented by rational transfer functions (Continuous-time AutoRegressive Moving Average or CARMA models) and their…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-04 Robert Stelzer

Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Théo Leblanc

While most Bayesian nonparametric models in machine learning have focused on the Dirichlet process, the beta process, or their variants, the gamma process has recently emerged as a useful nonparametric prior in its own right. Current…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-17 Anirban Roychowdhury , Brian Kulis

Phase-rectified signal averaging (PRSA) is a widely used algorithm to analyze nonstationary biomedical time series. The method operates by identifying hinge points in the time series according to prescribed rules, extracting segments…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Jiro Akahori , Joseph Najnudel , Hau-Tieng Wu , Ju-Yi Yen

In this paper, using spectral theory of Hilbertian operators, we study ARMA Gaussian processes indexed by graphs. We extend Whittle maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters for the corresponding spectral density and show their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-23 Thibault Espinasse , Fabrice Gamboa , Jean-Michel Loubes

We consider stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems simply by evaluating an observable function along the orbits of the system and study marked point processes associated to extremal observations of such time series…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-07 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mário Magalhães

In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

This study reports a statistical analysis of monthly sunspot number time series and observes non homogeneity and asymmetry within it. Using Mann-Kendall test a linear trend is revealed. After identifying stationarity within the time series…

General Physics · Physics 2012-04-19 Goutami Chattopadhyay , Surajit Chattopadhyay