Related papers: Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry
This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the…
Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of…
Applying software defect esimation techniques and presenting this information in a compact and impactful decision table can clearly illustrate to collaborative groups how critical this position is in the overall development cycle. The Test…
Many critical infrastructure systems have network structure and are under stress. Despite their national importance, the complexity of large-scale transport networks means we do not fully understand their vulnerabilities to cascade…
An important but understudied question in economics is how people choose when facing uncertainty in the timing of events. Here we study preferences over time lotteries, in which the payment amount is certain but the payment time is…
Understanding how individuals make decisions involving risk is a fundamental aspect of behavioral research. Despite the ubiquity of risk in various aspects of life, limited empirical work has explored student risk-taking behavior in…
The paper examines in the context of financial reporting, the controls that organisations have in place to manage spreadsheet risk and errors. There has been widespread research conducted in this area, both in Ireland and internationally.…
The hazard ratio is one of the most commonly reported measures of treatment effect in randomised trials, yet the source of much misinterpretation. This point was made clear by (Hernan, 2010) in commentary, which emphasised that the hazard…
This paper addresses risk assessment issues while conceiving complex systems. Indeed, project stakeholders have to share the same problems understanding allowing to undertake rational and optimal decisions. We propose an approach based on…
Actual real-world domains are characterised by uncertain situations in which acting and using resources may entail the embracing of risks. Performing actions in such domains involves costs of consuming some resource, such as time or energy,…
We introduce a modeling framework for an urban tram network based on a hyperbolic partial differential equation describing the transport of passengers along the network, coupled with a family of stochastic processes representing passenger…
Driving risk assessment is crucial for both autonomous vehicles and human-driven vehicles. The driving risk can be quantified as the product of the probability that an event (such as collision) will occur and the consequence of that event.…
Emergency response management (ERM) is a challenge faced by communities across the globe. First responders must respond to various incidents, such as fires, traffic accidents, and medical emergencies. They must respond quickly to incidents…
This report outlines work by the Modeling Transformative AI Risk (MTAIR) project, an attempt to map out the key hypotheses, uncertainties, and disagreements in debates about catastrophic risks from advanced AI, and the relationships between…
It is often the case that risk assessment and prognostics are viewed as related but separate tasks. This chapter describes a risk-based approach to prognostics that seeks to provide a tighter coupling between risk assessment and fault…
Risk is traditionally described as the expected likelihood of an undesirable outcome, such as collisions for autonomous vehicles. Accurately predicting risk or potentially risky situations is critical for the safe operation of autonomous…
The planning of attractive and cost efficient public transport systems is a highly complex optimization process involving many steps. Integrating robustness from a passenger's point of view makes the task even more challenging. With…
Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue…
Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…
Enterprise financial risk analysis aims at predicting the future financial risk of enterprises. Due to its wide and significant application, enterprise financial risk analysis has always been the core research topic in the fields of Finance…