Related papers: Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry
It is no secret that many projects fail, regardless of the business sector, software projects are notoriously disaster victims, not necessarily because of technological failure, but more often due to their uncertainties. The threats…
This study aims to assist Company leaders and management team in providing more accurate time and cost estimations for future software projects. This paper focuses on analyzing the relationship between project complexity and cost and time…
As automated vehicles receive more attention from the media, there has been an equivalent increase in the coverage of the ethical choices a vehicle may be forced to make in certain crash situations with no clear safe outcome. Much of this…
The transportation system is an interplay between infrastructure, vehicles, and policy. During the past century, the rapid expansion of the road network, blended with increasing vehicle production and mobility demands, has been stressing…
Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…
Estimands can help to clarify the research questions being addressed in randomised trials. Because the choice of estimand can affect how relevant trial results are to patients and other stakeholders, such as clinicians or policymakers, it…
The project management field has the imperative to increase the project probability of success. Experts have developed several project management maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature…
Statistical inferential results generally come with a measure of reliability for decision-making purposes. For a policy implementer, the value of implementing published policy research depends critically upon this reliability. For a policy…
Research capacity is critical in understanding systemic risk and informing new regulation. Banking regulation has not kept pace with all the complexities of financial innovation. The academic literature on systemic risk is rapidly…
If public trust is lost in a new technology early in its life cycle it can take much more time for the benefits of that technology to be realised. Eventually tens-of-millions of people will collectively have the power to determine…
In several applications such as clinical trials and financial portfolio optimization, the expected value (or the average reward) does not satisfactorily capture the merits of a drug or a portfolio. In such applications, risk plays a crucial…
Scaling machine learning models significantly improves their performance. However, such gains come at the cost of inference being slow and resource-intensive. Early-exit neural networks (EENNs) offer a promising solution: they accelerate…
Risk assessment services fulfil the task of generating a risk report from personal information and are developed for purposes like disease prognosis, resource utilization prioritization, and informing clinical interventions. A major…
I revisit the standard moral-hazard model, in which an agent's preference over contracts is rooted in costly effort choice. I characterise the behavioural content of the model in terms of empirically testable axioms, and show that the…
In this paper, we discuss aspects of model risk management in financial institutions which could be adopted by academic institutions to improve the process of conducting academic research, identify and mitigate existing limitations,…
Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is typically designed to perform well on the average loss, which can result in estimators that are sensitive to outliers, generalize poorly, or treat subgroups unfairly. While many methods aim to address…
This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the…
People often deviate from expected utility theory when making risky and intertemporal choices. While the effects of probabilistic risk and time delay have been extensively studied in isolation, their interplay and underlying theoretical…
This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets…
If managers assume a normal or near-normal distribution of Information Technology (IT) project cost overruns, as is common, and cost overruns can be shown to follow a power-law distribution, managers may be unwittingly exposing their…