Related papers: Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry
The need for a systematic approach to risk assessment has increased in recent years due to the ubiquity of autonomous systems that alter our day-to-day experiences and their need for safety, e.g., for self-driving vehicles, mobile service…
In general, underestimation of risk is something which should be avoided as far as possible. Especially in financial asset management, equity risk is typically characterized by the measure of portfolio variance, or indirectly by quantities…
Desirable system performance in the face of threats and disruptions has been characterized by various management concepts. Through semi-structured interviews with editors of journals in the fields of emergency response and systems…
Deployment of emerging technologies and rapid change in industries has created a lot of risk for initiating the new projects. Many techniques and suggestions have been introduced but still lack the gap from various prospective. This paper…
We develop a complete analysis of a general entry-exit-scrapping model. In particular, we consider an investment project that operates within a random environment and yields a payoff rate that is a function of a stochastic economic…
In Probabilistic Risk Management, risk is characterized by two quantities: the magnitude (or severity) of the adverse consequences that can potentially result from the given activity or action, and by the likelihood of occurrence of the…
Monitored data collected from railway turnouts are vulnerable to cyberattacks: attackers may either conceal failures or trigger unnecessary maintenance actions. To address this issue, a cyberattack investigation method is proposed based on…
Emergency response to incidents such as accidents, crimes, and fires is a major problem faced by communities. Emergency response management comprises of several stages and sub-problems like forecasting, resource allocation, and dispatch.…
The ICH E9(R1) guideline presents a framework of estimand for clinical trials, proposes five strategies for handling intercurrent events (ICEs), and provides a comprehensive discussion and many real-life clinical examples for quantitative…
In recent times, the research works relating to smart traffic infrastructure have gained serious attention. As a result, research has been carried out in multiple directions to ensure that such infrastructure can improve upon our existing…
The contour maps of the error of historical resp. parametric estimates for large random portfolios optimized under the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) are constructed. Similar maps for the sensitivity of the portfolio weights to small…
This study investigates how railway professionals perceive safety as a concept within rail, with the intention to help inform future technological developments within the industry. Through a series of interviews with drivers, route…
We employ a natural method from the perspective of the optimal stopping theory to analyze entry-exit decisions with implementation delay of a project, and provide closed expressions for optimal entry decision times, optimal exit decision…
The effects of model parameter uncertainty on traffic flow control problems have recently drawn research attention. While the uncertainty in fundamental diagram related parameters has been investigated in the past, few articles have focused…
Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accurate and unbiased. But what if, in reality, estimates are highly inaccurate and biased? Then the assumption that cost-benefit analysis is a…
Public transport is vital for meeting people's mobility needs. Providers need to plan their services well to offer high quality and low cost. Optimized planning can benefit providers, customers, and municipalities. The planning process for…
We present a risk-aware formalism for evaluating system trajectories in the presence of uncertain interactions between the system and its environment. The proposed formalism supports reasoning under uncertainty and systematically handles…
Energy infrastructure planning under uncertainty has become increasingly complex as electrification, interdependence between energy carriers, decarbonization, and extreme weather events reshape long-term investment decisions. This paper…
Ecosystem services refer to the ones human beings often obtain from the natural environment ecosystem. In order to solve the problem of environmental degradation, based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs…
According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its…